Federal Reserve’s final 2019 meeting summarized

by 

The Federal Reserve in its final policy decision of the year left rates unchanged and indicated that it would keep them on hold next year, expecting a solid economy. So far the economic numbers support this point of view, but it is quite possible that the US tariff policies will throw a serious wrench into the works as 2020 progresses. Based on current economic forecasts there will not be a recession coming. But it is entirely possible that the combination of Trump’s impeachment and the persistent economic squabbles between the US and its trading partners will cause enough problems that an economic down-turn will take place by mid-2020.

Expectations are that interest rates in the US will not change until it is clear where the economy is going. As stated above, that will not happen until well into next year. The Fed has indicted that it is in a position to move quickly if it has to.

Then, there is Brexit. If that policy will in fact be enacted by the new UK government and the country experiences a major down-turn, the rest of the world will follow suit. Indeed, Brexit could very well be the trigger mechanism for a major global recession.

At this point it looks as though the conservatives with Boris Johnson in the lead will win the elections and that means that Brexit will be the first thing the new prime minister will pursue.

There is little doubt that the next several months will be economically and politically challenging in the US, in Europe and the rest of the world.