Recent polling on the presidential race of 2020 seems to show President Trump in a very poor position to win reelection. A Fox News national poll and battleground surveys from CBS show Biden and other Democrats with comfortable leads.
A common response from Trump supporters in response to such polls is to point out just how wrong polling was back in 2016. This is certainly a valid reason to be skeptical of polling in this election, and last week I wrote about bipartisan skepticism of early polls showing a landslide victory for Biden, because of 2016 polling discrepancies. But the problems with polling in 2016 aren’t even the only reason why Trump supporters shouldn’t panic about the state of the presidential election. If polling more than a year before a presidential election was a solid predictor of the election outcomes, Barack Obama would have lost in 2012. In July of 2011, a poll conducted by Gallup found Obama trailing the “Republican Party’s candidate for president” by “a significant margin.” Here’s what Gallup had to say back then: