10 year yield is at 4.1% after the stock market rallied about 800 points. Makes no sense. This is serious doom. What could be? Might the FED not be able to control the bond market?
So here is where we are:
2 Year Treasury Yield: 4.44%
5 Year Treasury Yield: 4,23%
10 Year Treasury Yield: 4.02%
30 Year Treasury Yield : 4.33 %
— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) October 19, 2022
Bloomberg Economists See 100% Chance of a Recession Within a Year
America has seen its third quarter of negative growth and that doesn’t even included core inflation numbers which just hit a 50 year record.
According to the Bloomberg Economics probability model, there’s now a 100% chance we’ll see a recession in the next 12 months. The Bloomberg team isn’t the only one predicting economic difficulties; many economists have been warning about a recession for several months. However, Bloomberg is unusual in being so certain. Most other predictions are couched in language of it being a strong likelihood rather than a 100% possibility.
Yield spread is negative! 100% recession confirmed
AC