GDP NOW MINUS 1.5%. Recession!

Latest estimate: -1.5 percent — July 15, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5 percent on July 15, down from -1.2 percent on July 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.9 percent and -13.7 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -13.8 percent, respectively.

www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=4

The Atlanta Fed lowered its Q2 GDP forecast to -1.5%, following -1.6% in Q1. So the super strong U.S. economy, impervious to rate hikes, has been in recession all year. If the economy is already in #recession with interest rates below 2%, what happens after a few more rate hikes?

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) July 15, 2022

On July 15, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q22022 is -1.5%. @AtlantaFed pic.twitter.com/JEMJgFX18g

— Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) July 15, 2022

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls to a 106-week low. pic.twitter.com/jLY3JtgQB3

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) July 15, 2022

Oil prices drop below $95 for first time since invasion of Ukraine; Demand worries dominate as commodity markets bet on economic contractiont.co/WWw0378lfT#WarrenBuffett #BerkshireHathaway is a step closer to include $OXY in its resultst.co/n3I86mc3BZ $BRK.A pic.twitter.com/2w5KCkEITc

— Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) July 15, 2022

"We have seen households tap in to credit card spending, deplete their savings to support consumption. Now I think we are going to get the hangover…"#recession#Bloombergt.co/mEuqVJgqFF

— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) July 15, 2022

Global container freight rates have moved lower for 8 consecutive weeks and were down in 17 of the last 18 weeks. They are now 44% lower than their peak but still 4x higher than pre-pandemic levels. pic.twitter.com/PhOEKYnWS8

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 15, 2022

Investment banking slowdown sparks fears of Wall Street belt-tighteningt.co/BfThlfiJ9D pic.twitter.com/WS6UWS3P89

— Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) July 15, 2022

h/t Deplorable Hoosier