Germany’s AfD just won its biggest state election victory in party history

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Germany’s AfD just won 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, taking 39 of 83 seats and more than doubling its 2021 vote share. The CDU collapsed to 17.2%.

The bigger problem for Chancellor Friedrich Merz is that this is no longer just an eastern Germany protest vote. Current national polling has AfD around 28% versus roughly 21% for CDU/CSU.

And AfD is now trying to turn the state victory into its first state government since World War II, while Merz is refusing cooperation.

September 7 — AfD now leads Germany nationally

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/germanys-far-right-is-slow-burning-economic-risk-2026-09-07/

Reuters says AfD is polling around 28% nationally, ahead of Merz’s CDU. The state victory is therefore landing on top of an existing national lead.

September 7 — Merz refuses to work with AfD

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/far-right-afd-courts-conservative-support-after-historic-german-state-election-2026-09-07/

AfD is appealing directly to CDU lawmakers for support, while Merz says there will be no cooperation. That creates a very strange situation: AfD won the election but may need defections or another party’s support to actually govern.

September 7 — Merz says the defeat shook the CDU

https://www.dw.com/en/chancellor-merz-says-afd-result-changes-all-of-germany/a-79150560

Merz described the result as a catastrophe for the CDU while insisting he will continue his reform program. The problem is that voters in the state just rejected his party by a huge margin.

September 5–7 — Two more state elections are coming

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/05/saxony-anhalt-far-right-afd-plans-german-state-poll

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin are the next tests. AfD was already polling competitively in both. A second and third strong showing would make the Saxony-Anhalt result look less like an isolated eastern Germany event.

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