Gundlach puts the odds of a U.S. recession before the 2020 election at 75%

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via Yahoo:

Bond billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of $140 billion DoubleLine Capital, believes that the odds are increasing that the U.S. economy enters a recession in the coming months.

In June, he upped the odds of a recession, placing the probability of one occurring in the next 12 months, at 65%. In a telephone interview with Yahoo Finance on Tuesday, Gundlach placed odds of a recession happening before the 2020 Presidential election at 75%.

One market indicator that’s “full-on recessionary” right now is the yield curve, which Gundlach said looks “a lot like 2007.”

The yield on long-term U.S. debt like the 10-year Treasury note (^TNX) is now lower than yields on shorter-term debt, a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve.





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