We're hearing more talk of recession, but have you have heard one pundit mention there's no dry powder?
The biggest economic risk and you yet no one discusses it.
RAMPANT BUFFOONERY.
Hardest landing is GUARANTEED. pic.twitter.com/xTSIXrv5gD
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 27, 2022
In real terms, adjusted for inflation, it's unlikely we'll see these highs again for several decades.
Because over time they're going to get very creative with printed money when this all implodes. pic.twitter.com/FbTCPUjCiE
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 26, 2022
I told you yesterday.. all retailers are getting slaughtered
Average -20% m/m right now.. so will be counted for 2Q t.co/ULIj0TMzCx
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) May 26, 2022
Credit default swaps on GAP.. seems like the credit market thinks the consumer is very strong… (joke) .. it’s fucked t.co/OG23yHpyHb
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) May 26, 2022
Global high yield bond issuance slumps to lowest in 13 years | Reuters
No bueno t.co/vt4bLQjo9c
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) May 26, 2022
The 'big 3' #liquidity, #gdp and risk exposure still going down… bear markets last months, not days! pic.twitter.com/VIuOXNv6vd contact t.co/WB4EFarvgS for data
— CrossBorder Capital (@crossbordercap) May 26, 2022
Bulls, there is something you should know going into this weekend.
You are going to wake up limit down one of these days. pic.twitter.com/ARLT1R0ycx
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 27, 2022
Investors are being told it's too late to sell. Anyone who doesn't sell near the top must traverse "The valley of death" to get to a new high on the other side. After Y2K it took 13 years to breakout to a NEW high.
In 1929, it took 25 years.
In Japan, it's been 32 years. pic.twitter.com/KuG57dvr1z
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 26, 2022
China’s has fucked around everyone.. traffic is collapsing again in Shanghai
UBS@FreightAlley @TheMarketDog pic.twitter.com/nIBejtpZVF
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) May 26, 2022
The coming car crash in credits…. credit markets matter far more than equities… they make the #Fed panic. Recession Q3, 2022?? pic.twitter.com/3KyMFx4fWe contact t.co/WB4EFarvgS for reports
— CrossBorder Capital (@crossbordercap) May 26, 2022
Every time our US term structure measure (D-star, orange) has dropped below 5.0, the US #economy (black) has entered #recession within a year… its been below this threshold now for more than 6 month! Watch out Q3,2022. Nicely in time for the mid-terms! pic.twitter.com/KLpp4MSyVR
— CrossBorder Capital (@crossbordercap) May 26, 2022
Inflation: Former Philly Fed President Reveals the ‘Big Mistake’ That Led to the Current Crisis
“Monetary and fiscal policy have been extraordinarily aggressive in this episode and they’re the ones to look to as to what went wrong during this and to why the inflation has persisted as it seems to be,” he said.
A ‘Global Depression’ and More Rate Hikes: Here Are the Talking Points From Day Three at Davos
CNBC’s Silvia Amaro reviews Wednesday’s four biggest stories from the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos.
The Real Estate Buying Frenzy Is Over: “The Buyers Just Stopped Buying”
“The buyers just stopped buying,” said Shauna Pendleton, an agent with Redfin in Boise, Idaho, until recently one of the hottest markets in the country. “Californication,” as she called it, drove an influx of buyers from the West coast, flush with cash courtesy of the also formerly booming stock market.
Sequoia Capital – “This is a Crucible Moment…Cheap capital is not coming to the rescue…Recovery will be long”
- This is a “Crucible Moment”, adapt to the changing environment and invest equipped with information, don’t regret investments
- This will be a longer recovery. Can’t say how long, but the tools to help a recovery have all been exhausted.
- There is no cheap capital anymore. But smart companies will borrow or do equity raises even if on unfavorable terms to survive.
- Related to the above, we don’t have a liquidity crisis, but expect liquidity to be tight going forward.
- Capital was free for a couple years. Now capital is expensive. We are only now seeing the impact of how the increasing cost of money impacts the real economy.
- At a high level, the market isn’t as challenged as it was in 2001 or 2008, but you need to look beyond the megacaps to get the full picture.
- Growth at all costs is no longer being rewarded. The market is shifting to reward profitability. Investors are now focusing on near-term certainty. EV/revenue multiples and growth-adjusted multiples have all dropped dramatically.
- The only way to stop inflation is to stop purchasing and shrink the economy.
- They don’t say it in so many words, but they expect smart companies to have layoffs to become “nimble”.