How one French election could change the geopolitical future

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by John Ward

I have blogged away merrily now for at least three months pointing out the blatant evidence of French perfidy regarding the risibly termed “ratification” of the Anglo-French post-Brexit deal. As with everything that BoJo and his equally unpleasant gofer Grand Shatts get involved in, the detail of the transport side in particular became a veritably devilish lalalalalaah act that remains a mess. But in the broader sense, the French have continued to threaten, harass, blackmail, go-slow and sink low about everything from UK postal deliveries to electricity supplies via piracy in relation to our fishing fleet.

Brits (especially expats) should, however think a little more about what lies behind the EU ire in general, and behind the steroidal nonsense of Emmanuel Macho in particular.

In the run-up to Brexit (and the immediate aftermath) the Remoanoids sucked up every lie put out by Barnier, Blair, Obama, Campbell and the Labour/Libdem madhouse on the subject of how Britain would, on its own, collapse within weeks. All the fiscal and trade stats in the world couldn’t put the Numpty-Dumpties back together again. But now there is the odd glimmer here and there of realism: if the EU was going to be so much better off without the UK, why did they cling, force, push, cheat, conspire and sluice money into a Second Referendum campaign (plus a WA in name only) in an attempt to keep the British cash-cow on a tether? And why is it now obvious to all but the most frenzied chattering classes that the EU is crumbling?

Italy is now rabidly anti-EU, and being held in line by an unelected banker with a track record of unpardonably illegal geopolitical fiscal bullying. Hungary remains steadfastly against free movement of migrants and acceptance of the Euro. The bullies have turned on Poland – and been told by its government żeby się odpieprzyć. There is tension between Berlin and Paris, yet again, on the unwillingness of the French to do anything substantive about its expenditure-to-debt ratio. Rogue MEPs, meanwhile, have made a massive splash with their harshly expressed suspicions about illiberal emergency powers. EU/US trade talks have been suspended after going round in ever-decreasing circles this year. At least three Italian, one Spanish, one Austrian and two German banks are in a hopelessly parlous position. And with increasing Turkish oil-greed in the Mediterranean theatre, the EU looks set to suspend EU-Turkey ‘Customs Union Lite’ talks which have been under discussion…..since 2015. The European Union, in short, remains a lumbering half-empty tanker that takes six years to turn to starboard, and appears unable to remain viable without breaking the law on a near-daily basis.

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So for the moment, Macron’s cynical approval of “a French hard line to punish” Britannia is quietly supported by the autocrats in Belgium. But those at COP26 sense that the global hegemony crowd want little Manny to shutTF up.

The reason why the Boy King has no intention for the time being of doing that is, of course, he wants to get reelected in the Spring, when a Boy King’s fancy turns to rule by Napoleonic decree….or black cock, depending on what mood he’s in.

But this seems, at just before the 11th hour, to be somewhat in doubt. Eric Zemmour (left) hails from the Seine-Saint-Denis départment and is genetically a north African berber Jew. An extremely successful and highly awarded writer and journalist, Zemmour is also a famous face following a career in TV journalism. Most important of all, however, he is what one might call the acceptable face of LePenisme – that is, a right wing anti mass immigration Gaullist but with more intellect and far less baggage than Marine Le Pen herself.

Eric has made a massive impact and is now considered by most French media to be “probably the only person who can break the Macron/LePen solidity”. The latest opinion polls in France suggest as follows: Macron was still seen leading the first round with 24-28% last Friday….but for the first time, Zemmour has edged Marine LePen out of second place. On that basis alone, the President will, of course, win the first round easily – the new challenger having split the Right vote. But once LePen is out after the first round, it is highly like that the LePen votes will switch at a high percentage to Eric Zemmour…with a far higher turnout than in 2017.

The bad news for the Boy King doesn’t end there: arch hypocrite Michel Barnier of ‘hardline anti-Brexit EU federalist’ infamy has also thrown his hat into the ring….would you believe, on a mildly anti-immigrant stance plus arguing for no more “interference” in French affairs by Brussels. You really couldn’t make it up about this man; I remain astonished as to how his facial direction can swivel through 360° despite the thickness of his brass neck.

But sociopathic ambition aside, Macron is said by French media insiders to be “far more worried about Barnier than Zemmour”. It’s not hard to work out why: at the moment it looks likely that the former Chief Brussels Bully will not make it to the second round…but will damage Manny’s share of the first round vote.

In short, the number of voters who believe Macron can be beaten in the second round may well sky-rocket. At which point, he is in very deep doo-doo indeed.

So at the moment, Emmanuel Macron is predictably playing the much-thumbed, threadbare ‘La Perfide Albion’ card…let’s blame the Brits. It’s always a vote-winner here.

But he will have to change tack for the second round, and play the statesmanlike Mr Reasonable as a stark contrast to Zemmour’s radical realism. Zemmour himself has thus far steered clear of the mandatory vaccine issue, but his huge doubts about EU federalism have been clearly enough set out to earn a rousing endorsement from Hungarian Brussels sceptic Viktor Orban.

I’m prepared to stick my neck out on this one: if Zemmour formally declares his candidature and gets through to a second round straight fight, the hopes of anti-Macronites will become than just wishful make-believe. As always, the one unknown remains what lunatic macro-hegemony shocks break out between now and next April.

Slogarithms

Being in something of a reflective personal mode today, in closing I thought I’d share a few shards of wisdom recently gained in the twilight of a blessedly privileged life.

Climate Change & Covid Vaccination: Setting an impossible goal is the fast lane towards an image of indefatigable courage. Not achieving it delivers a verdict of gallant failure. For politicians, it’s a win-win.

Getting Freedom back: Promising conditional freedom soon gives absolute power to the Establishment. Guaranteeing freedom now returns power to the People.

Money can’t buy you love: Lose money on a deal & you lose a little self-esteem. Squander the love of your life & you lose the plot.

Science: Settled Science is merely ideology in pursuit of absolute power over ignorance.

 

 

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