If the market begins dropping next week, it’s pretty much right on track to match previous crashes.

by Kylome1

Historic SPY numbers show that if the market begins declining next week, or possibly the following Monday, it will match both the Dot-com crash and the Great Recession quite well.

  • A peak to trough of 24 trading days vs and average of 30 for the previous
  • A trough to peak of 19 trading days vs an average of 14.5 for the previous
    (Dec 26th, 2007 could have also been used as a logical second peak, which would make the average trough to peak 20 days instead).
  • With a total peak to second peak of 42 trading days vs and average of 43.5 for the previous
Dot-Com (2000, 2001, 2002) Great Recession (2007, 2008, 2009) COVID (2020, 2021, 2020)
Sept 1/00 close = 153.6 Oct 12/07 close = 156.3 Feb 9/00 close = 338.3
Oct 10/00 close = 133.1 Nov 26/07 close = 140.9 Mar 23/00 close = 222.9
Oct 30/00 50 x 200 day MA Dec 10/07 close = 152.1 Mar 30/00 50 x 200 day MA
Nov 6/00 close = 143.8 Dec 21/07 50 x 200 day MA Apr 17/00 close = 286.5
Dec 20/00 close = 126.3 Jan 22/08 close = 130.7
Apr 3/01 close = 110.4 Sept 16/08 close = 124.0
Sep 21/01 close = 97.3 Nov 20/08 close = 75.4
Oct 10/02 close = 78.1 Mar 9/09 close = 68.1

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.