The Treasury announced its quarterly refunding today.
It issues $125 billion in new debt to repay $96.3 billion maturing on August 15, and keeps an extra $28.7 billion in cash.
– 3-year note: $58 billion on August 11
– 10-year note: $42 billion on August 12
– 30-year bond: $25 billion on August 13
Mortgage rates are priced off the 10-year yield. Car loans, credit cards and business loans move with it too.
If not enough buyers show up at these auctions, the Treasury has to offer a higher yield to sell all of it. That higher yield feeds into every loan in the country within days.
The 30-year already sits at 5.27%, its highest in 19 years.
For stocks it works the same way.
Higher yields mean government bonds pay more, so money leaves risk assets.
— Bill (@Av8r07) August 5, 2026