If you are looking for slowdown signals in the US today is your day. Within the US' durable goods report the focus is on the non-defence capital goods orders ex aircraft – the "core" figure, which are a good lead for investment spending… so much for tax cuts boosting investment pic.twitter.com/ioHXOnbv8X
— James Knightley (@Knightleyeco) November 21, 2018
moar war please:
Defense aircraft: -59.3%
Defense capital goods: -16.6%
Nondefense aircraft: -21.4%— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 21, 2018
when the entire narrative of the "greatest economy ever" was just one big lie – Wall Street now pleads with Fed to stop interest rate hikes pic.twitter.com/ns92gpPwiS
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) November 21, 2018
Apple’s Biggest iPhone Assembler Is Said to Plan Deep Cost Cuts: BBG
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 21, 2018
U.S. recession chances edge up, risk Fed delivers fewer hikes: Reuters poll
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates again next month and three times next year, but a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters over the past week say the risk is it will slow that pace down.
The probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years, while still low, also nudged up to a median 35 percent from 30 percent in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken Nov 13-19. It held at 15 percent for the next 12 months.
While many developed economies are already slowing, growth in the world’s largest economy is still solid, riding the tail-end of a $1.5 trillion tax cut boost, and official unemployment is the lowest in nearly half a century.
But that shine is forecast to start coming off this quarter, with growth slowing more by the end of next year as a trade stand-off with China shows no signs of letting up.
Looks like GDP hit coming in sooner and faster than expected pic.twitter.com/cIR4GUE0xd
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 21, 2018
Everyone's focused on the bear mkt in Tech, but the key stress is in retailing – the group's on an 8-day losing streak, collapsing more than 13%, which last happened in Aug. '11. Before that, the retailing group only faltered this badly during the depths of the 2008-09 recession.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) November 21, 2018