If You Are Looking For Slowdown Signals In The Us Today Is Your Day

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U.S. recession chances edge up, risk Fed delivers fewer hikes: Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates again next month and three times next year, but a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters over the past week say the risk is it will slow that pace down.

The probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years, while still low, also nudged up to a median 35 percent from 30 percent in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken Nov 13-19. It held at 15 percent for the next 12 months.

While many developed economies are already slowing, growth in the world’s largest economy is still solid, riding the tail-end of a $1.5 trillion tax cut boost, and official unemployment is the lowest in nearly half a century.

But that shine is forecast to start coming off this quarter, with growth slowing more by the end of next year as a trade stand-off with China shows no signs of letting up.

 

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