ANN ALTHOUSE CALLS OUT NATE SILVER FOR GHOULISHNESS:
It seems to me, he’s assuming the conditions of contagion are the same in red and blue states and only the politics are different.
But I think the reason the red states are getting closer to reopening is that there’s good reason to think that it can be done carefully and that — with some distancing, a lot of masks, lots of hand-washing and sanitizing, and containment — the number of new cases can be kept down. And there are blue states and blue cities — notably New York City — where the same approach won’t be enough, because people go to work on the subway and ride in elevators together.
But Silver looks ahead and imagines red states screwed by their own ignorance of science and blue states looking way smarter and — what does he mean by “weird dynamics”? Is he hoping it will become painfully, wretchedly clear that the red-state people are deplorable?
What do you think? Plus, from the comments:
New York City is getting absolutely hammered, though things are definitely improving. But NYC is a unique situation: a city with very high population density, a very high reliance on mass transportation (which is still running), and a mayor who is a moron. It is basically the worst case scenario and if it was its own country it would be the worst hit place in the world by a large margin.
The next two worst states are New Jersey and Connecticut. Northern New Jersey is basically New York City West and western Connecticut is basically New York City East. So there you go.
The only other states of note are Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Michigan. Louisiana is being driven almost entirely by New Orleans, which foolishly let Mardi Gras go forward because their mayor is even worse than New York’s. Massachusetts was the unfortunate location of a super spreader event. Michigan has Detroit, which is usually sufficient explanation for anything.
As for the rest of the states, they are doing reasonably or very well.
Indeed. If you left NYC out — even keeping in those other dysfunctional blue areas — the US would be a shining example to the world.