If you’re wondering when to buy stocks during a recession: the official NBER confirmation of the recession has historically been a pretty good buy signal

by jacquesopper

Chart from Morgan Stanley:

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More info on NBER’s business cycle dating procedure: www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html

Edit: Just to clarify, the NBER announces the recession by identifying the peak month (i.e. the end of the previous expansion and the start of the recession). This occurs several months after that peak month.

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For example, the NBER officially called the previous recession in December 2008, by identifying December 2007 as the peak month. Just like in most previous recessions, the time of their announcement was a pretty good time to buy.

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Edit2: As /u/Investingbandit says below, you can sign up for the announcement here: www.nber.org/business-cycle-announce.html

 

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