Imagine there is a disease outbreak which causes world economy to shutdown.

by niceguy897

  • Imagine the only thing which matters for GDP on the long run, productivity gets screwed up.
  • Imagine even if you get back to production you can’t sell shit because of supply chain disruptions.
  • Imagine there are some long-term changes in consumer behavior which will make them less willing to spend after you open the economy back.
  • Imagine you don’t know if you can keep the economy open after you control the first wave of the infection.
  • Imagine your only guarantee would be a vaccine which takes 12-18 months to develop.
  • Imagine developing a vaccine is not a certainty as there are lots of infectious diseases we couldn’t find vaccines for.
  • Imagine all financial institutions predict the sharpest downturn since 1929.
  • Imagine you lay off 22 million people in 1 month.
  • Imagine global debt is 3 times of global GDP.
  • Imagine adding another credit cycle to the beginning of a downturn, so it might seem okay for a little more.
  • Imagine a stock market, for years, the future, not the present is priced in.
  • Imagine that future gets screwed.
  • Imagine you think you can hire that 22 million people back again in 1 second.
  • Imagine the government is bailing out speculators.
  • Imagine the government is bailing out people whose companies can’t survive for 1 month when their revenue is diminished.
  • Imagine the real components of the economy, the people getting wiped out.
  • Imagine these speculators keep betting on shitty things, because as long as you play the game this way, there is no downside risk.
  • Imagine there are billions of people living in cities. Imagine these people rely on salaries to buy themselves essential goods. Imagine the sophisticated jobs they do are not that shiny anymore, as their salaries.
  • Imagine generations, which haven’t witnessed global disasters for decades can handle this crisis in calm now, without any social unrest.
  • Imagine stock markets rally, defying every annoying fact and glorifying every comfortable speculation.

Imagine a world, which borrowed 3 years from its future, and now this future is not that bright. Imagine a world that can’t produce, can’t trade, that can only borrow, to continue living.

Or don’t, because you don’t need to.