Looking back at the monthly inflation rates during the financial crisis, it seems that they are a good indicator of the inflation caused by the feds spending vs the deflation caused by the lack of consumer spending shown on this website: www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
During the month of March, the fed’s balance sheet increased by more in a one month period than it ever has in its history, therefore inflation rates are likely going to be a good indicator of where we stand due to all of this rapid spending.
The fed is posting the monthly inflation rate this Friday and I believe that if the rate is low (below 1.0) that would be a huge indicator into how much deflation is currently happening even with JPow cranking out money faster than ever before.
On the other hand, if the rate is high (above 3.0) it would also be a good indicator that the fed has spent more money than they should have and we are starting to experience the beginning signs of hyperinflation even though we’ve had an almost stand still in consumer spending.
I’m honestly not sure what the number will end up looking like but either way it’ll be a good early indicator of what is truly going on with the market. On the likely chance that the fed is spending money in close relations to the decrease in consumer spending, the inflation rate will likely be stable (around 2.5) and in that case it will not imply anything besides JPow’s huge forearms from all the cranking.
Due to us being in uncharted territory with regard to the future of the market, it is likely that the fed could not predict how much they needed to spend to equalize the inflation rate and therefore it will likely be a good indicator of how much shit we’re truly knee deep in.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.