Investors are paying a massive premium for stocks that have stable earnings growth & are perceived as safer investments (low vol). Returns are usually poor when crowding is this extreme. pic.twitter.com/d2gzdJAJhr
— Greg S. (@GS_CapSF) October 4, 2019
Goldman's' "current activity indicator" shows US economic growth of 1.3% for September, BUT ..
.. if you took only SURVEY data, it would show 0.4%.
If you took only hard data? 2.5%
"That’s an unusually large gap," says chief economist Jan Hatzius.
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 4, 2019
bonds ain't buyin' it pic.twitter.com/3p7luSaAnl
— Eric Pomboy (@epomboy) October 4, 2019
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren thinks the U.S. economy is on track for GDP growth of just 1.7% in the second half of 2019.
The Fed should instead attempt to tamp down rate-cut expectations for its December meeting rather than opting not to cut rates for a third time in as many meetings in late October.