Investors: Pricing in too much of a recovery? Price has moved well ahead of earnings. Here, the drawdown & subsequent recovery in the #SPX price index against the drawdown in various earnings estimates, including fiscal yrs 2020, ‘21 & ‘22 & the next 12 mos, with Bloomberg data. pic.twitter.com/cVEpjWW4tS
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) May 11, 2020
https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1259937193247858699
This is not what a market pricing in a big cyclical recovery looks like. pic.twitter.com/0kRypruz5R
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) May 11, 2020
The economists over the weekend were rejoicing over the fact that in the past two months, 3/4 of those losing their job thought it was ”temporary”. As if the 5 million positions lost that are deemed to be permanent, two years’ worth of job creation, are somehow irrelevant.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) May 11, 2020
The @WSJ on why " #China Economic Data Indicate V-Shaped #Recovery Is Unlikely."
Remember, whether it's globally, regionally or, in the United States, nationally: the economic lockdown is being lifted in an unsynchronized fashion for now.https://t.co/7bUIpKin6V#economy #markets pic.twitter.com/OC8pMNXCzj— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) May 12, 2020
Put Call Ratio – a fist full of Calls and long the market – OE is generally an UP week.11 Billion Dollars of POMO today, says buying the dip should be profitable? The rule is over 5 Billion, up day. Monday flat day with 4 Billion in Pomo – Wednesday 5.75 Billion slightly up day pic.twitter.com/DyI1GaDWzI
— David Larew (@ThinkTankCharts) May 12, 2020
Small Businesses See Bleak Sales Picture, NFIB Says
Small businesses know the economy is going to be terrible in the short run and that their own sales might suffer a record drop, but they are more hopeful the corner will start to turn in the next several months, a closely followed survey showed.
Scientists warn that a much-feared "second wave" of coronavirus infections may become a storm of wavelets breaking unpredictably across the U.S. as more states move to reopen despite not meeting the minimal requirements to do so safely.https://t.co/KjHxLBuBTX
— The New York Times (@nytimes) May 11, 2020