Is Brexit a Massive Threat to Globalisation?
As Theresa May heads back to Brussels today in a last ditch effort to renegotiate her Brexit deal in order to get it passed through the British Parliament, we take a look not just at the current state of DIS-unity but also ask the question – is Brexit a Massive Threat to Globalisation?
May’s Brexit deal was literally laughed out of the House of Commons last week and commentators noted that they hadn’t seen such aggression towards an incumbent Prime Minister by members of his or her own party since Neville Chamberlain’s oversight of the disastrous Norwegian Campaign in 1939.
Conservative hard line Brexiteers won’t support this deal as it effectively still sees them following EU rules without any say in their making (an obvious side effect of resigning your membership to the club!). Conservative Remainers are also unwilling to support the deal but may feel forced to pick the lesser of two evils, a bad deal rather than no deal at all. Labour MPs are 86% Remainers and therefore highly unlikely to be supportive of the deal. The DUP, who prop up May’s government and are lead by Arlene Foster won’t support the deal because it effectively changes the relationship of Northern Ireland with the Union, a red-line issue for them despite the fact that this could be a great boon for Northern Ireland, who heavily voted in favour of remaining! The Scottish Nationalist Party (the SNP), representing the area that most heavily voted remain are also unlikely to support the deal and may use Brexit as a rationale for another independence referendum.
So May is caught between a rock and a hard place!
She needs to get a deal passed because she knows that any deal is better than the political and economic suicide of crashing out of the EU with no deal at all. But she has been sent like a modern day Michael Collins to attempt to secure a deal that cannot possibly be achieved.
With calls for another “Peoples Vote” falling on deaf ears and time running out, it appears that British politicians willingness to gamble with the economic future of its citizens is going to go down to the wire. They may also inadvertently set in motion a process that sees the break-up of the United Kingdom if Brexit triggers another Scottish independence referendum and a referendum in Ireland for re-unification.
And this is not just about the UK, Brexit is a challenge to the EU project and globalisation as a whole. When the UK leave (one way or the other) this paves the way for similar dis-unification in Europe and beyond as nationalism and populism and the era of fake news continues.
Where is the strategic leadership of old gone, the leadership and vision that created trading partners out of historic enemies in the first place?
And what is next?