Is The Next Winter Storm About Slam Into The East Coast?

via stormhamster

[A] Parent Low tracking well to our north.
[B] Upper Level/Mid Level energy will track towards the region.
[C] Additional Upper Level/Mid Level energy tracks toward the region.
[D] The southern wave.



A very progressive jet stream pattern exists. We have no deep arctic drop ins to consider. The Pacific is not amplified. We have plenty of room in the South West Atlantic to put our energy.
In order to entertain a more impactful scenario for Monday into Tuesday we would want to see additional arctic energy dropping in to help tilt the atmosphere, we would want to see Pacific ridging develop aggressively, and then you can amplify the flow to slow and turn the southern wave up the coast.
I have not been able to see nor find any such reason to look in that direction and will continue to support a well off shore tracking of this wave.

At the low to mid levels we can see these same events. Chosen to highlight our warming rebound and also to illustrate how much room exists for our southern high to slip quietly into the Atlantic. We can see our Azores high is very consolidated and well east. Our continental high will slip off shore and continue eastward.
The point here is in order to entertain and change in the potential of the southern wave on Monday into Tuesday we would want to see the continental high slow and thus pin the southern wave closer to the coast. There is just nothing to point towards such potential so we will continue to lean away from the scenario.

We once had the theory, and it was well supported by all guidance, that this would be another heavy wet rain storm that would deeply root into the tropical moisture and tap it well north.
As had been noted in recent days the model guidance dropped well away from such a scenario and we can see why this is the case. A lot of very dry air exists all across the continental United States, our Mid-Atlantic high pressure system has been very moisture suppressive, and thus our tap will be too weak.
 
Supportive Elements
 

A look at our jet and we’re very forward lean and progressive yet more importantly is the ill timed jet venting aloft. While we have the jet in position our wave is well to the south. There is no correcting this for Monday into Tuesday.
Our jet will instead boot the feature eastward and along with it goes our lifting and venting aloft.
This storm system, the second southern wave, is a strong candidate to hit Nova Scotia with a significant winter storm. It will offer just a glancing blow to New England and more so be that of an interactive influence over direct impact.

At the 700mb layer at the height of the initial storm system we can see our very progressive forward leaning front. Very late and lazy arctic upper levels well removed. A very strong mid level surge across the continental United States. Our parent low well north.
To the south is our secondary wave and you can get the picture here that it doesn’t have much of a choice but to track flatly towards Nova Scotia rather than entertain any amplification up the coast line. Haven’t yet seen reason to support otherwise and will thus continue to lean where we have from the start. Interaction not direct impact nor any trending otherwise is anticipated.

A general look at the elements. Our progressive front, our southern wave, our parent low well north, and it’s additional upper level elements sweeping in.
Take time to note our high is steadily departing the coast rather than slowing. This gives plenty of room for our front to sweep east before slowing thus pushing the secondary wave off the coast.

Progression of our forward leaning offshore wave. Good hit for Nova Scotia here. Glancing interactive support for New England.
 
Direct Impact
 

As the wave passes well to our south and east and heads to Nova Scotia we do have a lot of upper and mid level energy that comes in overhead. This will bring a variety of triggers for light snowfall activity all across the region.

At the low to mid levels we can see several features involved in bringing the potential for snowfall. We have the northern midlevel disturbance linking lightly with the offshore low thus bringing some additional moisture and lift into New England.

To the south we have additional midlevel energy that will support some Mid Atlantic activity. Also the steady forward lean departing front (trof) off the coast.



Another look at those low to mid level disturbances and how they’ll enhance specific regions. The southern one it should be noted isn’t very stable on guidance in terms of tracking. It could end up a bit north and east or perhaps a bit south and west or right where we see it here. It will offer a narrow corridor of enhanced lift so it will be important to pin down where this goes as it will change localized forecasts from a coating to as much as two inches depending on where the narrow axis sets and drags along. This is unlikely to be a significant feature or trof event but more of just a mid level feature driving along a weak boundary attempting to emulate an inverted trof event.
 
Forecast Theory
 

We’ll see our weak front bring through scattered showers and some scattered mixed precipitation in the typical regions to the north and west.

This will slide towards the coastline. Some colder air starts to bleed in on the north west side and we’ll see some mixed precipitation on the back end. Doubtful this stage offers any accumulations except to maybe dust some mountains on the way along. The rainfall is not anticipated to be heavy.

Then our front will sag southward and some of that mid level energy starts to enter from the west. We move along fairly quickly here. Sunday may be a nice day across the majority of the north east.

Then we’ll turn our attention to the multiple features explained above. I split this up more than usual to define how this is not the work of one single element. Our low passes well to our south and east. Our mid level disturbances start to work their enhancement as do some elevated areas.
The trickiest part as mentioned is that Mid Atlantic piece of energy. There will be a corridor of modestly enhanced lift as shown but is it there, is it to the north and east, or to the south and west. It’s something you’re unlikely to see solved in full confidence for another couple days. A late stage doorstep type tracking. What it won’t do is go overly intense nor widen it’s scope. Will be a narrow axis of enhancement.

As such the always hated, always scorned, and always wrong attempts at sniffing out the snowfall potential, contours, and intensities. This is meant to be a general guide.
Being in 2-4? doesn’t mean four inches plus. It means 2-4?. Most of us will be trace to two inches but you have to account for local enhancement potential. There will be a lot of broken presentation to our precipitation with this event so to broad paint contours and expect them to verify is probably not going to work out very well.
As said the Mid Atlantic enhancement is possible yet where? Also is it really able to give us 2+ inches or will it just be more 1-2. I don’t really know but I left an open mind on it for now.
We can see the mid-level and well offshore coastal low interactive enhancement. Those elevated areas of enhancement.
I have a lower region there in theory for NJ/DE/EPA because there’s going to be the split between mid-level disturbances as they track. I kept the amounts the same but the intent here is to demonstrate whatever activity occurs here is likely to be more scattered and broken than other areas.
[rant]
These aren’t end alls. I’m tired of the twitter noise over it and constant complaints that I am hyping or lowballing. In fact I’m tired of all of twitter with the constant contesting of everyone’s feeds and the blowhards make believe games of getting everything right. No you don’t, no you didn’t, and for fuck’s sake, nobody cares.
As if I give a crap enough about (anyone in particular or their locaiton) to play such games. Don’t really care who gets what and why. Don’t care who got what right and how and why and from how far away. Come’on now. Those of you who play these constant games are just ignorant. You take my comments at value and do with them as you choose. It’s not worth debate.
As always whatever changes occur along the way as we near we’ll adjust to in the feed. It’s not a big deal…honestly, it’s never a big deal. It’s why I track real time.
[/rant]
 
February 1-3
 

A look at our February 1st through 3rd primary element.

A brief look at some guidance on it. We’re just not yet in range to consider a suite, a run, nor a gut feeling on this one.

We saw what happened to our incoming January 27-29th system at range on guidance. I’d anticipate more changes to the February 1-3 event. Therefore to continue to discuss it or offer any new thoughts or details would be in poor choice. In due time.
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