Italy Is About To Hit 1,000 Deaths Per Day

+919 today

I Compared Italy’s Death Rate With The US Death Rate From A Different Angle

I looked at deaths per million of population over time. Keep in mind that this ratio will rise over time as deaths rise daily, but population remains constant. I picked Italy because they have one of the highest death rates in the world at 136 deaths per million.

From the first recorded death it took Italy 11 days to get to 1 death per million 22 days later they are at 136 deaths per million.

It took the US 22 days to get to 1 death per million. Seems encouraging, no?

From the time Italy had 1.7 deaths per million, it took only 3 days to get to 3.9. The US had 1.7 on March 24th, 3 days later it was 3.9. JUST LIKE ITALY!

The next day Italy had 6.1. If the US is on that track, we can expect another 700 deaths today, approximately.

If the US gets to 136 per million, that will be approximately 45,000 people.

I used data from

I have no agenda for this. I simply enjoy statistics and probabilities, and I’m bored to death.


h/t Prowling Panther