Real Vision, Released on 2/11/22
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, “this was not a good report.” And the decline was largely attributable to waning confidence among the investor class, which fears the stock-market implications of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Regular consumers are simply in fear of falling behind because of inflation. An emerging Wall Street consensus now sees seven rate hikes coming down the pike, a process that could result in an inverted yield curve. And an inverted yield curve often means “recession.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other risk assets, perhaps on the perception that it’s an effective hedge against still-accelerating inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about next moves for the Fed amid increasing chatter about an emergency session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next regular meeting in March.
Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).