by Ruby Henley
There is world panic as President Trump edges closer to May 12 – the deadline date of the possible withdrawal from the Iran Deal. While President Trump awaits May 12 with the probability of withdrawal from the accord, John Kerry is meeting with world leaders in an attempt to save the Deal.
Frankly, at this point, I am praying President Trump does not withdraw from the controversial Obama made deal. It is done, and I think to withdraw would open a Pandora’s box that could set off World War III.
The fact that former Secretary of State, John Kerry, is meeting with world leaders to discuss the Iran Deal puts President Trump in an odd isolation. Was he asked to accompany Kerry? If not, why not?
This is too serious an issue for the President to cut himself off from a chance to work with world leaders in a beneficial discussion which could prevent World War III. We are running out of time.
Meanwhile French President Macron is warning about the consequence of withdrawal from the controversial Obama made Deal. He knows what we all know – as May 12 approaches the World is moving closer to the point of no return. In fact, are we already there?
“This means that we would open Pandora’s Box, which is tantamount to war. I don’t think Donald Trump wants war,” Macron said in an interview. During his visit to Washington last month President Macron tried to dissuade Trump from walking away from the Iran nuclear agreement.
Even though Trump has threatened to quit the 2015 accord, he still said that he might go along with a European proposal to broker an add-on deal to cover Washington’s concerns about the agreement.
This is good news, and I hope it does manifest soon; however, I have my doubts that it will.
All parties must comply with the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program, there is no alternative, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.
‘Russia has consistently adhered to the position on preserving the viability of the so-called Iran deal. We believe that it has no alternatives and that it should be implemented by all parties,’ Peskov said when asked how Russia will block attempts to sabotage the deal.
He added that no contacts between Russian and US presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are planned on JCPOA yet.
In January, the United States and the E3 group created a working group to discuss approaches to Iran and concerns with the nuclear deal.
The US side is taking steps to amend the accord. On January 30, US President Donald Trump asked the Congress to address the flaws in the ‘terrible Iran nuclear deal.’ Two weeks earlier, Trump announced he would waive sanctions on Tehran as required under the JCPOA for the last time. The United States is expected to announce its decision on the agreement before May 12 deadline.
On July 14, 2015, China, Germany, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States (collectively referred to as the P5+1 group) signed the JCPOA with Iran. The accord stipulated a gradual lifting of anti-Iran sanctions in exchange for Tehran’s assurances that its nuclear program would remain peaceful.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday that Moscow will not accept any replacement for the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) instruments in dealing with implementation of JCPOA in Iran.
The JCPOA stands for Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the official name of the agreement reached between Iran and six world major powers in 2015 to give Tehran sanctions relief in return for scaling back its nuclear program.
She made the remarks in response to a question on Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent claim about Iran’s nuclear program in a weekly news briefing on Friday.
Netanyahu recently claimed Israel has obtained ‘Iran’s secret files’ which reveal Tehran is still pursuing nuclear weapons program secretly even after the JCPOA came into effect.
The statements met with wide-scale global response, as many countries and international organizations rejected Netanyahu’s assertion.
Since efficiency of the inspections of IAEA as the sole authority to monitor nuclear activities have been proven fully, Russia rejects any speculations and deviations by media outlets, said the spokeswoman.
Russia believes that all the issues pertaining to IAEA’s verification in Iran should be undertaken within the context of the agency’s own mechanisms, she said,
noting that any issue directly related to implementation of JCPOA can be dealt with the 5+1 Group-Iran Joint Commission mentioned in JCPOA.
Zakharova reiterated that her country will keep up implementing commitments under the deal and until the time the other parties fulfill their sides in the deal and Resolution 2231, it will stick to the principled policy.
I have had mixed feelings on the approach President Trump is taking to the JCPOA. Also, those feelings are the same concerning what Obama did in the signing of the Iran Deal. However, since I am not privy to the inside facts, I do not have the right to judge either President.
However, there is no doubt the grave consequences we are presently facing if President Trump chooses to withdraw from the accord. Iran has threatened the United States, and I would have expected no less from the volatile Country.
Yet, every Country in the world – not just the United States has a right to their own opinion and response to any global issue. The United Nations is giving the same warnings of a World War if the US does withdraw from the accord.
If one truly delves into the issue at hand, one must face the conclusion that all world powers must consider that no Country is greater or less than another. This is an attitude that I am currently taking in the face of a possible nuclear war.
Equality not only pertains to a human right, but it also pertains to the right of a Country. If one Country chooses to house nuclear weapons on the world stage, then another Country also has that right.
If one Country leads in disarmament of those same weapons, that opens the door to the same step for another Country. Yet, to be honest, the probability of that happening is slim to none.
However, the only way any Country can keep the peace is to respect global law. As America inches away from seriously considering the wishes of other world leaders, we risk isolating ourselves from global order. If there is not some law for global leaders to adhere to, then there is no doubt war will ensue.
We must finally face the fact we are not a Country alone in this world, and we are not a global police force. This is a new and revised stance for me, but it is the only logical conclusion in an emerging global community.
One might say Iran cannot be trusted, and I agree with that statement. However, the rule of law must apply with the chance taken another entity may not comply with that same law. It is a chance which must be taken. The risk of annihilation makes no sense whatsoever, and for any Country to use a nuclear weapon on another Country is truly the annihilation of the entire world.
“Nuclear fission produces energy for nuclear power and drives the explosion of nuclear weapons. Both uses are possible because certain substances called nuclear fuels undergo fission when struck by fission neutrons, and in turn emit neutrons when they break apart. This makes a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction possible, releasing energy at a controlled rate in a nuclear reactor or at a very rapid uncontrolled rate in a nuclear weapon.”
In understanding the “self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction” created by a nuclear weapon should make one realize what happens to one happens to all. We are – after all – connected to one another whether we like it or not.
In conclusion, I would like to give some background on the Iran deal. Here are the facts –
The Iran deal (formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) was struck in 2015 between the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China, the European Union and Iran. It forces Iran to give up its materials to build a nuclear weapon in exchange for some sanctions relief.
The deal also imposes the most rigorous, invasive inspections on Iran in history. International inspectors have 24/7 access to Iran’s nuclear sites and would catch any attempts by Iran to violate the deal.
Those inspectors have confirmed over and over that the deal is working and that Iran is complying with the deal. Trump’s own national security officials, including Secretary of Defense Mattis and General Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have also said the deal is working and the U.S. should stay in it.
If the U.S. pulls out of the deal, it will all fall apart. Iran will probably pull out too, and resume its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Other partner nations will have to choose between doing business with the U.S. or with Iran, and the whole thing will unravel. Our international partners have time and again urged Trump to stay in the deal.
The deal is the deal and there’s no renegotiating it. Trump likes to talk about renegotiating, or changing certain aspects of the Iran deal. While the U.S. is always welcome to engage in more diplomacy and build more deals, this deal is final and either we are in or out.
Each Member of Congress must speak up now. Congress must use their platform and issue statements immediately, calling on Trump to stay in the deal and to choose diplomacy over war.
“If the US pulls out, we could be heading down the path of another senseless war. That’s why the forces of the UN, Congress and the American public are so pivotal.
President Trump will decide on May 12 whether to keep the Iran nuclear deal. If the US pulls out, that would be the beginning of another senseless war in the Middle East. That’s why the countervailing forces of European leaders, the UN, the US Congress and the American public are so pivotal.
The Iranian theocracy is nowhere close to democracy.
Overturning nuclear agreement will benefit Iran’s conservative clerics which should not be given any more power. The moderate President Hassan Rouhani will lose power to hardliners who won’t negotiate with the west. If they were to gain power it would backlash the more liberal, secular forces of Iran.
Iran’s elite military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is protecting Islamic regime from Yemen to Syria.
If Trump pulls out, the “three Hs” – Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis will intensify and IRGC will have a greater reason to retaliate with US policies in the Middle East and will target US allies. IRGC may attack US and Israel troops stationed in Afghanistan, Iraq, and military bases in the Middle East.
If the US breaks the nuclear deal, Iran will empower itself by installing more centrifuges and producing more enriched uranium or plutonium as it desires. So if the US is currently troubled with Iran’s current foreign policy, what would happen at a later nuclear-empowered stage?
Trump’s own secretary of defense wants the agreement to be kept and so do other signatories to the agreement as Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia feel. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, just visited Washington DC, to convince Trump not to pull out, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, will be meeting with Trump for the same reason. The nuclear agreement was made by the entire UN system with a vote of 15-0 by UN Security Council. Jeopardizing the deal would compromise the best interest of international framework in regards to nonviolent conflict resolution and US will lose its respect. Keeping the nuclear deal will make Iran stop its conflicts and normalize its relations with Tehran.
Pray President Trump is given the wisdom he needs to do what is best for the United States and ultimately the world.