At the onset of 2008, Ben Bernanke said the Fed was not looking for a recession.
Later that year, Q4’08 GDP delivered a -2.8% print.
Just last Friday, Jerome Powell said the Fed is not forecasting a recession.
Obviously the Fed never forecasts a recession. But them saying they don’t expect a recession to happen is usually a good sign that a recession is definitely coming.
Greenspan said something similar in 2001.
TL;DR: SPY PUTS
Disclaimer: Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.