Junk bonds have gone from under 13% to over 17% within 3 years for only the fourth time ever.

The weak borrowers are already paying crisis prices. The shopper is not broke yet. Those two can both be true until the layoffs show up.

Junk bonds have gone from under 13% to over 17% within 3 years for only the fourth time ever.

You're going to want to see when the other 3 events were.

[1/5] https://t.co/eQkEYyPp52

— OddStats (@OddStats) October 4, 2026

In June 2007, junk bonds were paying 11.45% but by June 2008, they had spiked to 17% on their way to 45% in December. This coincides with the Global Financial Crisis.

"Fuck!" is right.

[3/5]

— OddStats (@OddStats) October 4, 2026

Junk bonds paid in the 12%s as recently as this year. Now they're over 17%, as of this week.

"Fuck!" may be right. We'll all find out together.

[5/5]

— OddStats (@OddStats) October 4, 2026

Higher rates are crushing traditional construction, but the AI capex boom doesn’t seem to care.

Since December 2023:
Data centers: +$4 billion
Everything else: -$10 billion

The gap between AI and the rest of the economy keeps getting wider. pic.twitter.com/DoQVmXVb6I

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 5, 2026

Americans say the economy is miserable. They keep spending like it's a boom.

Consumer sentiment is sitting near a record low. Real spending, adjusted for inflation, just made a new high, with household outlays up 6.1% over the past year. Even shoppers earning under $50k spent… pic.twitter.com/iJA2WBOcPL

— Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) October 5, 2026