Major banks forecasting a recession in earnings calls


  • The challenges society has experienced not just in the past year but since the pandemic has eroded hope and reinforced pessimism in many parts of the world. We’ve seen a decline in birth rates and an increase in aging populations, a rise in nationalism and populism, and I fear that we are entering a period of economic malaise.


  • The net reserve build of $1.4 billion was driven by updates to the firm’s macroeconomic outlook which now reflects a mild recession in the central case as well as loan growth in Card services, partially offset by a reduction in pandemic-related uncertainty.

Bank of America

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  • Our baseline scenario contemplates a mild recession … unemployment to peak at 5.5% early this year and remain at 5% or above through 2024. A mild recession in the base case and a worse recession in the adverse case that we weight at 40%.


  • Therefore we continue to see the US entering into a mild recession in the second half of the year.

Wells Fargo

  • While we are not predicting a severe downturn, we must be prepared for one. We feel prepared for a downside scenario if we see broader deterioration than we currently see or predict.


h/t Player896


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