Emerson College Polling released today shows Democrat Adam Hamilton at 49% and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 45% among likely Kansas voters (Oct. 26–28 survey of 800). Independents break for Hamilton 59–25. Hamilton has gained four points since the same poll in September. Prediction markets have moved with the numbers: Kalshi and Polymarket now price Hamilton at or above 50–55% in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. The race is rated toss-up by Cook. Trump canceled a planned Saturday rally for Marshall in Salina after empty-seat issues at other stops and said he did not feel he had to go because Marshall was “doing well.” He had attacked Hamilton as a “radical lunatic” at an October 19 rally in Park City.
🚨MAJOR FLIP: Adam Hamilton is now favored to win the Kansas Senate race for the first time
If he wins, he’d be the first Democrat to win the Kansas Senate in 94 years pic.twitter.com/n4Da0nhwKl
— Kalshi Politics (@KalshiPolitics) October 30, 2026
Hamilton leads Marshall 49% to 45% in the final Emerson survey.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6181812-hamilton-marshall-kansas-senate-poll/
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/
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