by Player896
On the technical front:
- Red line is VIX inversed -> clear correlation with market peaks and bottoms -> VIX looks to be approaching the end of its upswing as it has fallen to the <20 level
- CNN Money’s Fear & Greed Index is posturing near extreme greed -> has been a reliable indicator this year on timing market tops and bottoms
- SPY AUM is showing signs of plateauing which have signaled past declines -> sharp ETF outflows also correspond with declines and one has just occurred very recently
- Note that the 200D acts as a harsh ceiling during recessions
On the fundamental-ish front:
- Yield curves are drastically inverted -> bond markets are considered smart money and generally posture against recession ahead of equities -> bond market is betting very hard that a recession will occur
- EPS expectations remain anchored -> comparison against past bear market downturns indicate further pain to go as next year’s forecast will see a drastic reduction in growth
- Chicago PMIs (Orange) at levels unseen unless in recessions and the ISM Manufacturing is now officially in correction after declining all year
- US Retail Sales have been in a downtrend over the last several months as companies such as Costco and Target warn of weakening consumers
