Markets think they are getting what they want: a Fed pivot… Could be, but they’re also getting a recession…

The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out: WSJ

The flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep Americans spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing, while inflation remains elevated.

Recession Probability Nearing 50%

Six weeks ago, an analytical model developed by a analyst at the U.S. Federal Reserve said the odds the NBER will say a recession began sometime betweeen mid-December 2022 and mid-December 2023 was just one in six. As of 30 January 2023, that same model is signaling the probability the NBER will someday say the U.S. went into recession during 2023 is nearing 50%.

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Black Swan Manager Preps for Financial ‘Mega-Tinderbox-Timebomb’: WSJ

After an epic 15-year run, hedge fund Universa’s Mark Spitznagel says the financial system is poised for a crisis—eventually.

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