Cassandra usually turned out to be right. So has David Shor, the Democratic Cassandra who was fired last June from his job as a poll analyst for the Joe Biden polling firm Civis Analytics for tweeting, after rioting broke out from a Minneapolis suspect’s death in police custody May 25, that violent rioting in 1968 cost Democrats enough votes to lose that year’s presidential election.
That was a message the woke Twitteratti didn’t want to hear; they wanted to cheer on the “mostly peaceful” (i.e., often violent) riots in cities across the country. But it turns out Shor’s point was well taken. Democrats’ cheers for last summer’s violent riots and their support of “defunding the police” cost Biden precious votes, nearly enough to defeat him despite his 7 million popular vote plurality, especially among non-white voters.
That’s the conclusion of Shor, who turns 30 this year and is now with the left-wing nonprofit group OpenLabs, based on close study of election returns down to the precinct level and special post-election polling, as relayed in two interviews with New York magazine’s Eric Levitz. And his analysis applies not only to the 2020 election and the particular persona of Donald Trump, but also to elections in years ahead.
Shor’s analysis of precinct returns has him revising the exit poll slightly. Comparing Biden’s performance with Hillary Clinton’s, he tells Levitz, “Democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to 1 percent among non-college whites and roughly 7 percent among white college graduates (which is kind of crazy). Our support among African Americans declined by something like 1 to 2 percent. And then Hispanic support dropped by 8 to 10 percent. The jury is still out on Asian Americans.”