Ad spending for the 2026 midterms has crossed $10 billion and is on track for a record, with AdImpact projecting around $11.6 billion by Election Day—more than the entire 2024 presidential cycle. Senate races alone are drawing billions, and outside groups are pouring money into battlegrounds. Republicans are outspending Democrats in many Senate contests but getting less efficient reach because of higher rates and heavy outside-group reliance. Democrats hold the edge on House ads.
Five senior Republican lawmakers, speaking anonymously to Politico, said the House is effectively lost. Goal now is to limit the damage and protect the Senate. One predicted Democrats would pick up about 10 seats. Candidates in redistricted Florida and Texas districts are “hanging on with their fingernails.” Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo: no one he talks to privately believes Republicans can hold the House. Super PACs have already pulled spending from some once-targeted seats, including in Michigan, Ohio, and the Nebraska district left by Don Bacon. White House aides and MAGA Inc. are shifting focus to a Senate firewall in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.
New leaked audio from a Sept. 24 Washington fundraiser, obtained by Rolling Stone, has Ken Paxton telling donors “Yes, Abbott is struggling” in the Texas governor’s race against Gina Hinojosa, even though Abbott has the money and name recognition. Paxton listed his own disadvantages: brutal primary, negative ads, less time to raise money, and a well-funded, well-known opponent in James Talarico. He also said Republicans will probably lose some seats in the Texas legislature. Latest in a string of leaks from the same event in which he blamed gas prices, the Iran war, and Washington for dragging his numbers. Recent polls have Talarico ahead.
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ohio gubernatorial campaign is recutting a property-tax TV ad after The Bulwark reported that background footage showed Vernon Edwards, husband of the featured woman, Patty Edwards. Edwards pleaded guilty in 2006 to two counts of gross sexual imposition involving a girl under 13 and is on the sex-offender registry. Footage came from a September county-fair meeting. Campaign spokesperson said they had no knowledge of his record and are removing him from the spot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/us/politics/midterms-ad-spending-10-billion.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/14/house-republicans-private-lost-cause-01117673
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/ramaswamy-campaign-ad-accidentally
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