Mish Shedlock: Real Interest Rates Suggest It’s a Good Time to Buy and Hold Gold


Real Three-Month Yield

Real means inflation adjusted.

I calculated the real interest rate by subtracting year-over-year CPI from the current 3-month T-bill yield.

One could also use the Fed Funds Rate or 1-month T-Bill rate as the yields are all about the same.

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CPI Year-Over-Year vs 3-Month T-Bill Yield

The following chart puts the negative interest rate theory to the test,

Real Interest Rate vs Price of Gold 

Real Interest Rate vs Price of Gold 2021-05

The chart above shows the monthly gold close, not monthly highs. That explains why the 1980 top does not show.



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