Usually the first sign of a downturn is when default rates for various kinds of debt rise (credit card, auto loan, etc.). Here’s an article from the NYpost talking about it.
Despite a booming economy, many Americans are having trouble paying credit card bills, industry observers warn.
An increasing number of auto borrowers are also asking for more time to pay.
These trends disturb card industry experts.
“It is a problem we should watch,” says Bill Hardekopf, founder of LowCards.com.
“I would say that credit card defaults is definitely a cause for concern,” says Joe Resendiz, an analyst with ValuePenguin, which tracks the credit industry.
Resendiz noted the recent second-quarter net credit card default numbers rose for Bank of America and JPMorgan. In an otherwise rosy report, the amount of in-default charge card bills rose by 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively, compared with the same period in 2017.
But JPMorgan charge-off rates remain “low” on a historical basis, said spokeswoman Betty Riess.
The latest numbers also come at the same time that those with the poorest credit card records — subprime borrowers — saw their credit card debt increase by 26 percent, ValuePenguin said.
The St. Louis Fed data also backs this article up given that default rates have been rising since their 2015 low:
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