More than 70% of economists think a US recession will strike by the end of 2021

  • The US economy appears poised to enter a recession within the next two years, a new survey out Monday found.
  • More than 70% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they think a recession will occur before the end of 2021.
  • Stocks dropped sharply last week after a key recession signal flashed for the first time since before the global financial crisis in 2007.

The US economy appears poised to enter a recession in two years, a new survey of business economists found.

In the survey by the National Association for Business Economics, out Monday, 72% of economists predicted that a recession would occur by the end of 2021. That’s up from 67% in February and according to data gleaned from more than 200 respondents.

The new figure combines the 38% of economists who said they expect a recession to strike in 2020 with the 34% who said they see one befalling the US economy in 2021. In a survey conducted in February, 42% said they saw a 2020 meltdown, while just 25% forecasted one in 2021.

The survey was taken before the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on July 31 and before data pointed to heightened recession concerns in financial markets.

Screen Shot 2019 08 19 at 10.57.31 AMNational Association for Business Economics

Stocks dropped sharply last week after a key recession signal flashedfor the first time since before the global financial crisis in 2007. Economists and investors have also become increasingly jittery about escalating trade tensions between the US and China, which the business economists recently cited as a risk.

“After more than a year since the US first imposed new tariffs on its trading partners in 2018, higher tariffs are disrupting business conditions, especially in the goods-producing sector,” NABE President Constance Hunter said in a separate survey of the economy last month.

“The majority of respondents from that sector, 76%, indicates that tariffs have had negative impacts on business conditions at their firms.”

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