Most People See No Chance Of A Recession

THREAD

MOST PEOPLE SEE NO CHANCE OF A #RECESSION….

1/ This model is predicting a 25% chance of a recession in next 12 months. If it stays on course, it will be 40% by year end. This model always predicted a recession within 12 months once 40% is triggered.
Via @SeekingAlpha pic.twitter.com/FdwaL0C4VQ

— OW (@OccupyWisdom) August 18, 2018

2/ Three indicators – yield curve (spread between 10 & 2Y #Treasuries), headline UE rate, & trailing rate of #inflation (CPI y/y chg) Components are smoothed w a moving average & the levels of each drive a logistic regression against 1 year ahead of actual US #GDP recessions pic.twitter.com/bajxoRbSzO

— OW (@OccupyWisdom) August 18, 2018

3/ #HOUSING

Y/O/Y price growth rate for U.S. home sales has been dropping for five straight months

Median home sale price in July fell 1.4% from June

Number of homes sold fell 8.2% from June

Months of supply at 2.7 is up 0.2 M/M and median days on the market rose 1 to 35 pic.twitter.com/Odbqb5oaOT

— OW (@OccupyWisdom) August 18, 2018

28% of homes on the market in July had a price drop, the largest share on record since Redfin began tracking this metric in 2009

Median sales price of 54 metro areas down 3.1% from June

Four metro areas saw Y/Y price decline

14% of listings in the U.S. had price cut in June

— OW (@OccupyWisdom) August 18, 2018

4/ SAVINGS RATE

Low and deformed interest rates discourage real savings as bank accounts give a negative rate of return pic.twitter.com/n9PEs3nKST

— OW (@OccupyWisdom) August 18, 2018

5/ #DEBT

Deformed interest rates encourages debt: mortgages, #creditcards, student loans, auto loans etc. low savings, high debt. pic.twitter.com/IxPvQRLACF

— OW (@OccupyWisdom) August 18, 2018

6/ #ASSET PRICES

The #StockMarket benefits as do investors chasing a yield and disregarding the risk. pic.twitter.com/jqwUqbWiUM

— OW (@OccupyWisdom) August 18, 2018