No consumer confidence, ex-U.S. breakout, more new highs

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by Troy

The U.S. economic recovery is K-shaped: most people are suffering while some are doing well. The stock market is rallying while Consumer Confidence has not recovered at all:

This may seem like a bearish sign for stocks, but it isn’t. The stock market is forward looking, and it’s normal for post-recession bull markets to have weak consumer confidence:

As has been the case for most of the past decade, U.S. stocks have outperformed ex-U.S. stocks. That is starting to change as ex-U.S. stocks challenge their January 2018 highs:

Contrary to standard technical analysis, breakouts aren’t always bullish. Breakouts are more bullish in the U.S. than outside the U.S., mostly due to the fact that the U.S. has outperformed ex-U.S.

A consistently high % of U.S. stocks are hitting 52 week highs:

In recent decades this was bullish for stocks over the next year.


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