By Tsvetana Paraskova
Oil prices dropped early on Monday, weighed down by persistent concerns about the pace of global economic growth, as traders and investors expect this week monetary policy decisions from central banks and the resumption of the U.S.-China trade talks.
Concerns over the state of global economy, especially economic growth in the world’s top crude oil importer, China, continued to weigh on oil prices at the start of the week.
According to Reuters polls of more than 500 economists carried out between July 1 and 24, experts worry that the U.S.-China trade war will impact global economic growth more than previously expected despite clear signals from many major central banks, including the Fed, that they would cut rates and ease monetary policies.
More than 70 percent of 250 economists polled by Reuters now say a deeper global economic downturn is more likely, compared to around 50 percent in a similar poll in April.
Oil prices also reacted on Monday to Iran saying that its meeting with the remaining signatories to the nuclear deal—China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom—was “constructive” and “discussions were good.”
“I cannot say that we resolved everything, I can say there are lots of commitments,” Reuters quoted Iranian official Abbas Araqchi as saying on Sunday.
Yet, Iran insists that the European signatories to the deal ensure there are no obstacles to Iran exporting its oil, even if the U.S. has now imposed strict sanctions without waivers on Iranian exports. Analysts don’t see this EU-Iran impasse regarding Iranian oil resolving soon.
Apart from the U.S. oil inventory reports, investors and traders will be looking at two other developments this week—the Fed’s two-day policy meeting in the middle of the week, at which it is expected to cut interest rates, and the resumption of the U.S.-China trade talksin Shanghai, for which expectations are low that any major breakthrough could emerge.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com