The $VIX is hitting a wall of complacency. The S&P 500 is nearing the apex of a wedge. We are at the height of the business cycle and the Fed easing cycle has only just begun.

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The $VIX is hitting a wall of complacency. The S&P 500 is nearing the apex of a wedge. Fundamentally, US stocks are historically over-valued. Macro timing indicators show the peak of the business cycle. Are the technicals also setting up for a bear market? $SPX $SPY $ES pic.twitter.com/QetyySees3 — Kevin C. Smith, CFA (@crescatkevin) October … Read more

Here’s why the stock market can never crash or the US will slide into a historic depression: financial assets are now 5.6x GDP

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https://twitter.com/fedoroffx/status/1190228625083305984 https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1190112267737669633 #Our1929Quotes Side by side… pic.twitter.com/8Q0tBmyQ1r — Michael Norinsberg (@Mnorinsberg) November 1, 2019 Greenspan says the economy is missing leverage, and just happens to conveniently forget the US gov't just went from $10T–>$23T in debt in only 10 yrs!🤦‍♀️🙄🤔Where did that spending end up Alan? Gov't handing out 💰$1T/yr to spend is NOT ORGANIC … Read more

China PMIs shrink, indicating deflation risk. Almost two decades of passenger car sales growth have come to an end

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China PMIs shrink, indicating deflation risk pic.twitter.com/RolbFsgF11 — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) October 31, 2019 Almost two decades of passenger car sales growth in #China have come to an end pic.twitter.com/gfwg0lmnzY — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) November 1, 2019 #HongKong Banks are 900% of Hong Kong’s GDP. Imagine what happens if #RealEstate prices … Read more

What you’re not being told is global trade is plunging again — the whole narrative by wall street was that growth was supposed to pick up at the end of the year.

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what you're not being told is global trade is plunging again — the whole narrative by wall street was that growth was supposed to pick up at the end of the year. pic.twitter.com/AMme1tCF4A — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) November 1, 2019 ANZ Global Leading Index is well below trend pic.twitter.com/MCpNL3gaH1 — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) October … Read more

The ultimate survival backpack

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by travissidelinger Thought I’d share here. I have put together several backpacks.  This is my best one.  It’s my take everywhere backpack.  Except work, I have a different backpack for work.  And my camping backpack is separate.  If we had to run in a hurry, we would grab our camping backpacks (which are usually ready to … Read more

0.92% Q4 GDP Growth?

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by UPFINA The ADP private sector jobs report was a mixed bag. On the negative side, the September report was revised from showing 135,000 jobs created to 93,000. We know the initial BLS reading was 114,000, but that’s subject to a revision. As for now, the ADP report went from optimistic to pessimistic. The October report … Read more

Chart: US BBB rated bonds (just above junk rating) have tripled since 2010

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by SpontaneousDisorder     https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1189920797122543618 Companies are on pace to sell a record volume of U.S. investment-grade bonds this year, with 65% of the issuance coming from BBB rated issuers: Fitch Ratings https://fitchratings.com/site/re/10099564 Here’s a look at the market value of the Baa universe of debt in the U.S. – rising to nearly $3 trillion, triple … Read more

Apple is up 66% this year and its trailing PE has gone from 12.6 to 20.9. However the smartphone market is maturing, iPhone sales are falling and trade concerns persist

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In fairness iPhone sales probably will receive a boost from the expected release of new 5G phones. However, accelerated or delayed phone upgrades are merely moving revenues in time rather than growing revenues. For me the recent stock price increase is overdone. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and … Read more

Whirlpool criticsed in UK for using controversial gagging clauses to “silence customers” who had been fire victims of its faulty tumble dryers

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The report found it ‘astonishing’ that there were still up to 800,000 faulty machines in people’s homes Whirlpool has been condemned for using controversial gagging clauses to “silence customers” who had been fire victims of its faulty tumble dryers. MPs said it was “disgraceful” the manufacturer made householders sign non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) and called for … Read more

GM recalls 638,000 U.S. SUVs, trucks for unintended braking

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General Motors Co <GM.N> is recalling 638,000 U.S. sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks because a wheel-speed sensor could fail and cause unintended braking, it said Thursday. The recall covers 2015-2020 Chevrolet Suburban, Tahoe, and Yukon and 2014-2018 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and GMC Sierra 1500 vehicles equipped with a 5.3-liter engine, a 3.08-ratio rear axle … Read more

A ‘growing club’ of ‘very powerful countries’ is steering away from using the dollar

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/de-dollarization-russia-china-eu-are-motivated-to-shift-from-using-usd.html The U.S. dollar has been the world’s major reserve currency for decades, but that status could come under threat as “very powerful countries” seek to undermine its importance, warned Anne Korin, from the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. Korin says China, Russia and the European Union are some “major movers” behind this … Read more

Rents Fall Southern California, Seattle, Miami, San Francisco, San Jose, Chicago, Honolulu & Others

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Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, http://www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter But rents surge in 22 other markets by the double-digits. Southern California – sampled here by Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Ana, and Long Beach – has decidedly entered the list of big and expense rental markets where apartment rents are on the decline. Other decliners from their prior peak rent, … Read more

Global Slowdown? Mexico’s GDP Declines Year-Over-Year for First Time Since 2009

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Not just exports and manufacturing – but services stall. By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET: In the third quarter of 2019, Mexico notched up its first year-over-year decline in GDP since the final quarter of 2009, when it was in the midst of a sharp recession brought on by the Financial Crisis. According to a preliminary estimate published by … Read more

This Is “The First Presidential Impeachment Inquiry In Modern History Authorized By Members Of Only One Party”

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by Michael Snyder The Democrats have really messed up this time.  On Thursday, we witnessed the first major congressional test for this impeachment inquiry, and the House of Representatives did approve the formal rules that were being pushed by Nancy Pelosi and her cronies.  But it was a major victory for President Trump, because not … Read more