Pentagon Officials Are Realizing US Munitions Stockpiles Aren’t Nearly Big Enough To Take On China
Micaela Burrow on April 9, 2023
In a whirlwind of hearings in March, Pentagon leaders revealed how much the Ukraine war has cut into American munitions stockpiles.
Massive rates of ammunition consumption from the war have caused the Pentagon to reevaluate needs for a potential China contingency.
“One of the big lessons coming out of Ukraine is the incredible consumption of conventional munitions and the conduct of what is really a limited regional war. So, a great power war, if that were to ever happen — God forbid it does — the consumption rates would be incredible,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said.
As reports of a munitions shortage increased following rapid withdrawals from American arsenals to supply the war in Ukraine, Defense leaders in testimony before Congress revealed deep concern about the U.S.’ ability to sustain a contest with China.
The U.S. has devoted millions of rounds of munitions to Ukraine since Russia invaded more than a year ago, draining U.S. stockpiles and setting off alarm bells in Congress and the White House on the state of America’s arsenal in light of higher-than-expected consumption rates in Ukraine. Senior leaders in the Department of Defense and military service branches, in statements to justify the Pentagon’s budget request for the coming year, warned that the U.S. has massive hurdles to overcome to rebuild to the level necessary to counter China, and remains vulnerable in the meantime.
“I’m concerned. I know the secretary is … we’ve got a ways to go to make sure our stockpiles are prepared for the real contingencies,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told the House Armed Services Committee on March 29.
DOD has directed the military to review war plans and reassess munitions expenditure estimates to inform future budget requests, Milley said.
For example, the number of Javelin anti-armor missiles the U.S. donated to Ukraine during the first six months of the war equals seven years of production, according to research from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. At normal manufacturing rates, it would take up to eight years to replenish U.S. arsenals of precision 155 mm rounds, Javelins and HIMARS ammunition as of January.
“I think the biggest thing we learned was the expenditure rates. It’s caused us to go back, to take a look at our own wargaming and analysis, what our predicted expenditure rates would be, and the questions and assumptions we made,” Adm. Mike Gilday, chief of Naval Operations, told the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense on March 29.
Ukraine fires between 3,000 and 7,000 rounds each day, or the equivalent of yearly orders for a small European country, according to manufacturer Nammo in a statement to the Financial Times. It would fire orders of magnitude more if supply were not so constrained.
Russia, meanwhile, whose military doctrine typically emphasizes overwhelming artillery fire concentrated against enemy positions, at one point was launching somewhere around 50,000 rounds each day, according to The New York Times, citing a senior NATO official. Russia’s artillery fire plummeted in early 2023, a sign the U.K. Defense Ministry took to indicate constrained supply and contributed to inability to achieve battlefield gains.
Remeber when Obama shut down the last lead smelter and said any surplus brass that was shot by the military and used to be sold on gvt surplus site but now it all goes to China!!!!
h/t Coastie Patriot