These dates are courtesy of Robinhood so if they are wrong you can thank your favorite broker
Tuesday, July 14th: pre-market
Wednesday, July 15th: pre-market
Thursday, July 16th: pre-market
Thursday, July 16th: after hours
Friday, July 17th: pre-market
Monday, July 20th: pre-market
Monday, July 20th: after-hours
Tuesday, July 21st: pre-market
Tuesday, July 21st: after-hours
Wednesday, July 22nd: pre-market
Wednesday, July 22nd: after-hours
Thursday, July 23rd: pre-market
Thursday, July 23rd: after-hours
Friday, July 24th: pre-market
Tuesday, July 28th: pre-market
Tuesday, July 28th: after-hours
Wednesday, July 29th: pre-market
Wednesday, July 29th: after-hours
Thursday, July 30th: after-hours
Friday, July 31st: pre-market
Monday, August 3rd: after-hours
Tuesday, August 4th: after-hours
Wednesday, August 5th: pre-market
Wednesday, August 5th: after-hours
Thursday, August 6th:
Thursday, August 6th: pre-market
Thursday, August 6th: after-hours
Thursday, August 13th: pre-market
Thursday, August 13th: after-hours
Friday, August 14th: pre-market
Tuesday August 18th: pre-market
Wednesday August 19th: pre-market
Thursday August 20th: after-hours
Wednesday August 26th: after-hours
Thursday August 27th: after-hours
Thursday September 3rd: pre-market
Thursday September 3rd: after-hours
In a Kangaroo market like this I find myself looking to SPY for entry points on calls/puts and try not to go against the grain..
The technical picture suggesting a move to SPY 315 and a break above that would send SPY to 327.50
*But from there, the index could pull back to a low of around 300
*A break below 296.50 opens for significant downside
and we would expect to see 273 within a few trading sessions
JPOW also said he sees a three stage economic path..
stage 1 – the shutdown with sharp drop in activity – ends in June
stage 2 – the bounceback with sharp increase in MoM economic data – ends in July
stage 3 – we find that the economy is “well short” of pre-pandemic levels and go ‘oh shit’
*PPP funds running out in June for business that secured loans in April.. (PPP deadline extended to Aug 8th)
*Federal bans on evictions in federally assisted properties ends July 25
*Federal unemployment extra $600 ends July 31st
*The markets will be prepping next month for the first release of 2nd quarter GDP which has been
projected to drop anywhere from 30% to 50%
Q2 2019: +2.0%
Q3 2019: +2.1%
Q4 2019: +2.1%
Q1 2020: -5.0%
*The HEROES Act, if passed by the senate, could include..
second round of stimulus checks
extension of the $600 increase in unemployment
What to expect as banks report earnings:
-expect another big hit to earnings as they set aside more money to cover loan losses
-a boost in fee income from elevated trading activity
-Banks not allowed to raise dividends or perform share buy-backs through Q3 2020
*Wells Fargo & Co. WFC appears at greatest risk for a dividend cut among the “big six” U.S. banks
*analysis of the government data found that just over 554,000 small businesses who got PPP funds
reported retaining zero jobs – raising concerns about how many will be eligible for forgiveness in the future
*Consumer borrowing fell dropped BIGLY in April, less in May, and even less in June.. But use of consumer credit is down YoY for each month of Q2
*Revolving credit, like credit cards, declined at a nearly 29% clip in May. In April, revolving credit shrank by a record 65% as people paid down debt.
*For companies that rely on transaction volume and late fees for revenue generation.. this will hurt Q2 earnings (MA, V, etc.)
*Yet nonrevolving credit, typically auto and student loans, actually rose 2.3%. Auto sales rebounded
during the month (ALLY CVNA)
*As Bloomberg cautions, the pace of recent Chinese gains matches the market’s melt-up that started in the final weeks of 2014.. before a huge crash in SHCOMP..
*Global restaurant traffic data via OpenTable shows little improvement in late June
OpenTable recently warned that 25% of all U.S. restaurants would never reopen
Energy: A Deloitte analysis has found that almost a third of U.S. shale producers are technically insolvent with crude at $35 a barrel.
Analysts predict 250 oil/gas/shale may go bankrupt with companies now filing for bankruptcy at the fastest pace since 2009
(COF) Capital One said nearly three-quarters of its $6.24 billion exposure to the oil and gas industry
lies with companies responsible for exploration and production.
(BAM) Broofield Asset Management tenants will go bankrupt.. but BAM has requested forbearance
on the loans BAM owes for 12-months..
*of course, any news on PPP-extension, more unemployment checks, or a vaccine could always cause a rally
***If you must buy puts, buy them on IWM, not SPY.. FANG will have retard strength as long as printer go brrrr.. and JPOW buys AAPL bonds..
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.