Ray Dalio sees a U.S. debt shock within 3 years. The 10-year Treasury is already flashing warning signs. BESSENT SAYS BOND “MARKET TOO ILLIQUID TO CONTROL”

I thought the U.S. Treasury market was the deepest, most liquid market in the world, consisting of pristine collateral (USTs).

That’s what the charlatans and Milkshake simpletons have been telling me for the last couple of years. https://t.co/Vop0DBOjY4

— Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@KingKong9888) September 30, 2026

🚨 RAY DALIO: A U.S. Debt Market Collapse In 3 Years, Give or Take Two

Ray Dalio says that the U.S. is on the brink. If the fiscal path does not change, a debt shock could hit in 2 years.

$40 Trillion in debt and climbing, net interest surpass defense spending.

U.S. 10-Year… https://t.co/IKyolsZZCV pic.twitter.com/9qOKK4ysHx

— Stern Drew (@SternDrewCrypto) September 30, 2026

The Bond Market Is Repricing The Cost Of Money

The move in the 10 year and 30 year Treasury market is much bigger than a simple reaction to oil, Iran or one economic release.

The 10 year has climbed above 5.29% and the 30 year above 5.63%. More importantly, much of the recent… https://t.co/Y84NAuL1l1

— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) September 30, 2026

Our financial system is on the verge of collapsing and people are selling the best hedge… gold.

The US10Y yield is at the core of all of it… the "risk-free yield" and "safe-haven asset" on which the global financial system is built.

Normally during times of crisis or… pic.twitter.com/Zae4CPQS8X

— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) September 30, 2026

The real reason yields keep rising: The US debt.

Hormuz traffic has recovered, and PCE inflation is cooling, but the yields won't come down.

Because the US government is now refinancing $9 trillion a year with over $2 trillion in new borrowings.

This means around $30 trillion… pic.twitter.com/iA1x8G2XaA

— Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) September 30, 2026

Long term Deficit outlook worse than we thought.

America’s fiscal situation is daunting, with key budgetary warning signs and hurdles approaching in the near term. In August 2026, the national debt surpassed $40 trillion, yet the debt continues to grow faster than ever. What’s more, the trustees for America’s key social safety net programs, Social Security and Medicare, warned that both programs’ trust funds will be depleted within seven years. A recent chart book created by the Brookings Institution’s Jessica Riedl provides a thorough examination of the federal government’s challenging fiscal situation. Here are seven key takeaways from that chart book.

1. Deficits May Be Even Worse Than Thought
In its most recent budgetary projections, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the federal deficit would reach $3.1 trillion by 2036. However, CBO is required to provide projections based on current law, which assumes that policies like no tax on tips expire as scheduled. Lawmakers often extend such policies, as evidenced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025’s extension of tax cuts originally enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Assuming current policies remain in effect and tariffs return to pre-2025 rates, Riedl projects the deficit will reach $4.4 trillion in 2036, $1.2 trillion more than CBO’s projection.