Recession Confirmed

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by StockTipsTips

$WMT claimed increased sales in lunch meat and half gallons of milk, $TGT claimed a dramatic drop in discretionary spending, & the U.K. financial gurus polled that 1/3rd of their citizens are skipping meals (They wouldn’t dare make such a poll in the US). People are economizing on their needs and buying less of their wants.

In the mean time rents have skyrocketed (leading to less buying power), gas is at all time highs (meaning less buying power), food/vehicles/homes/electronics etc …. all at record highs, & if we’ve learned anything from recent earnings we know that inputs & labor are too expensive and margins are getting eaten alive despite record revenues

Still, there’s no end to the Ukraine War or China Lockdowns. Biden is doubling down on restricting oil leases. China, Russia, Hungary, Ukraine, & India are no longer exporting many of their grains. Natural gas production capacity is at 100% but demand continues to grow. Inflation just jumped hard in both China & the U.K. (Increasing the price of imports). We have a fertilizer shortage, supply chains are still gummed up, semiconductors/electronics are still jacked (thanks further to China), and we can’t even seem to produce baby formula.

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And yet the Fed is raising rates, the average mortgage interest rate is 5.3%, people are taking out variable rate mortgages, the Fed is offloading their balance sheet (Starting on June 1st) and these piss poor earnings only represent primarily January-March … only pricing in part of the War in Ukraine & hardly any of the China lockdowns … meaning next earnings will probably be worse.

Only a matter of time folks. This ain’t the bottom.

However the Good Folks at JP Morgan & Goldman can’t see this 😏

Sub prime car loan defaults—canary in a coal mine

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