$WMT claimed increased sales in lunch meat and half gallons of milk, $TGT claimed a dramatic drop in discretionary spending, & the U.K. financial gurus polled that 1/3rd of their citizens are skipping meals (They wouldn’t dare make such a poll in the US). People are economizing on their needs and buying less of their wants.
In the mean time rents have skyrocketed (leading to less buying power), gas is at all time highs (meaning less buying power), food/vehicles/homes/electronics etc …. all at record highs, & if we’ve learned anything from recent earnings we know that inputs & labor are too expensive and margins are getting eaten alive despite record revenues
Still, there’s no end to the Ukraine War or China Lockdowns. Biden is doubling down on restricting oil leases. China, Russia, Hungary, Ukraine, & India are no longer exporting many of their grains. Natural gas production capacity is at 100% but demand continues to grow. Inflation just jumped hard in both China & the U.K. (Increasing the price of imports). We have a fertilizer shortage, supply chains are still gummed up, semiconductors/electronics are still jacked (thanks further to China), and we can’t even seem to produce baby formula.
And yet the Fed is raising rates, the average mortgage interest rate is 5.3%, people are taking out variable rate mortgages, the Fed is offloading their balance sheet (Starting on June 1st) and these piss poor earnings only represent primarily January-March … only pricing in part of the War in Ukraine & hardly any of the China lockdowns … meaning next earnings will probably be worse.
Only a matter of time folks. This ain’t the bottom.
However the Good Folks at JP Morgan & Goldman can’t see this 😏
Amid soaring fuel prices, one of the largest airlines in the world, Emirates Air, lost over $1 billion during the past fiscal year. pic.twitter.com/F4g2izbmGB
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) May 19, 2022
FED'S KASHKARI: I DON'T KNOW HOW HIGH RATES NEED TO GO TO BRING INFLATION DOWN
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) May 19, 2022
$COIN to freeze hiring and cut spending on $AMZN Web Services
— Market Rebellion (@MarketRebels) May 19, 2022
Yet another measure of tightening $USD #liquidity: #Fed #RRP at record high today approaching $2 trillion… and it's not even month-end, let alone quarter-end or year-end! pic.twitter.com/WvnBbFrhLM
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) May 19, 2022
GLOBAL diesel shortages herald imminent economic slowdown: https://t.co/MJ4jqPwVD8 pic.twitter.com/sxLX3BaBJW
— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) May 19, 2022
$COST raising hot dog prices in food court by $1 due to inflation
— Market Rebellion (@MarketRebels) May 18, 2022
Sub prime car loan defaults—canary in a coal mine