Recession Imminent

by chaney3

Introducing the newest brand of full-blown autism™, I present to you the California / Europe ultimate bear portfolio! Based on a special blend of my extra chromosomes and a spicy mix of hate for California, this portfolio will blow average market returns out of the water based on the following assumptions (Cetaris Paribus):

1. The world will enter a large economic recession within the next 12 months.
2. Many Currency values will fall relative to others, however the Euro will be hit among the hardest.
3. As unprofitable companies no longer have access to liquid credit or financing they will have to restructure their debt in some form.
4. The highest density of unprofitable companies will continue to exist in California, and local California municipalities will not plan accordingly for a recession.
5. European markets in general will fall quicker and with more momentum than US equity markets.

Feedback and thoughts requested please.

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Symbol & Exchange	Description	Instrument	Position	Strategy Allocation (%)
CHF/EUR FOREX ICE	Swiss Frank vs Euro Currency Pair	Currency Pair	Long	10
6EH2021 CME	Euro Futures March 2021	Futures Contract	Short	10
FXE NYSEARCA	Invesco Currency Shares Euro Currency ETF	ETF 15JAN 2021 $98 Strike Put Contract	Long	10
GBP/EUR FOREX ICE	Pound Sterling vs Euro Currency Pair	Currency Pair	Long	15
USD/EUR FOREX ICE	U.S. Dollar vs Euro Currency Pair	Currency Pair	Long	5
CMF NYSEARCA	California Municipal Bond ETF	ETF	Short	5
PZA NYSEARCA	Invesco Nation AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF	ETF	Short	5
AUD/USD FOREX OANDA	Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar Currency Pair	Currency Pair	Long	5
EZU BATS	iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF	ETF 15MAY2020 $37 Strike Put Contract	Long	15
GDX NYSEARCA	VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF	ETF 15JAN2021 $35 Strike Call Contract	Long	20

Edit: Typo, wrote put instead of call for GDX. Shame tables don’t copy over from word / excel and you have to retype yourself.

 

Disclaimer: Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.