by chaney3
Introducing the newest brand of full-blown autism™, I present to you the California / Europe ultimate bear portfolio! Based on a special blend of my extra chromosomes and a spicy mix of hate for California, this portfolio will blow average market returns out of the water based on the following assumptions (Cetaris Paribus):
- The world will enter a large economic recession within the next 12 months.
- Many Currency values will fall relative to others, however the Euro will be hit among the hardest.
- As unprofitable companies no longer have access to liquid credit or financing they will have to restructure their debt in some form.
- The highest density of unprofitable companies will continue to exist in California, and local California municipalities will not plan accordingly for a recession.
- European markets in general will fall quicker and with more momentum than US equity markets.
Feedback and thoughts requested please.
| Symbol & Exchange | Description | Instrument | Position | Strategy Allocation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHF/EUR FOREX ICE | Swiss Frank vs Euro Currency Pair | Currency Pair | Long | 10 |
| 6EH2021 CME | Euro Futures March 2021 | Futures Contract | Short | 10 |
| FXE NYSEARCA | Invesco Currency Shares Euro Currency ETF | ETF 15JAN 2021 $98 Strike Put Contract | Long | 10 |
| GBP/EUR FOREX ICE | Pound Sterling vs Euro Currency Pair | Currency Pair | Long | 15 |
| USD/EUR FOREX ICE | U.S. Dollar vs Euro Currency Pair | Currency Pair | Long | 5 |
| CMF NYSEARCA | California Municipal Bond ETF | ETF | Short | 5 |
| PZA NYSEARCA | Invesco Nation AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF | ETF | Short | 5 |
| AUD/USD FOREX OANDA | Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar Currency Pair | Currency Pair | Long | 5 |
| EZU BATS | iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF | ETF 15MAY2020 $37 Strike Put Contract | Long | 15 |
| GDX NYSEARCA | VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF | ETF 15JAN2021 $35 Strike Call Contract | Long | 20 |
Edit: Typo, wrote put instead of call for GDX. Shame tables don’t copy over from word / excel and you have to retype yourself.
Disclaimer: Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
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