Remdesivir vs. SPY tomorrow

by ksixi

I’m more bullish than probably 80% of folks on this site, but this trial data is useless.

First of all, 125 patients is a tiny sample size.

Second of all, 2 patients died, which is a 1.6% fatality rate for patients who were probably receiving the best medical care available in the world. Do you really think a UChicago/Gilead funded study will have the same overworked doctors in any other hospital running the trial?

Third of all, and this is huge,THERE IS NO CONTROL GROUP. Seriously? Might as well rub a bat against your face to see if you’ll get cured.

This goes back to point number two. We have no way of determining what the fatality rate might be for patients receiving top notch medical care (after all, Gilead has every financial incentive to make this drug look effective), but just a saline infusion instead of Remdesivir. Maybe the fatality rate would be 1.6% for anyone under Gilead’s care, whether they received Remdesivir or not.

I’m thinking that the after hours algorithms never took a basic statistics or biology course.

SPY is heavily weighted toward tech stocks which have led the huge rally so far. We’ve all made insane returns betting that it will continue to go up, but I guarantee people start taking profits tomorrow, especially after hitting ATH’s, and will start moving their gains to immensely undervalued companies.

TLDR: Congrats on holding calls tonight, but take your profits within the first 30 minutes. SPY will finish below where we ended today.

4/17 SPY $282c

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.