Residential investment weakness signals stocks will fall 4.6% in the next 3 months.

by AlexPitti

Housing certainly isn’t strong as real residential investment growth has been negative for 5 straight quarters (although it’s predicted to be positive in Q2). How weak can housing starts get if this cycle barely even saw much of an increase? It’s like the effect losing one game would have on a last place team’s place in the standings.

On the negative side, single family new home sales peaked in November 2017. If a new peak isn’t reached soon, this will quickly become a recession warning. The fact that the housing market isn’t incredibly strong given the low unemployment rate and positive real earnings growth shows how unaffordable housing became in 2018.

The slide below from Pictet Asset Management shows 75% of the time when residential fixed investment has turned negative there has been a recession. That includes 12 events. As the table shows, the average stock market return is -4.6% after 3 months which is 6.6% less than the average of all 3 month periods.

Residential investment decline signals weak stock market returns

Be Cautious Of Recession Indicators

 

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