September gets blamed for crashes because September has a reputation.
But look at what is actually happening right now.
Oil is back above $100.
The 10-year is around 4.8%.
The 30-year is above 5.2%.
The jobs number came in way hotter than expected.
Now traders are starting to price a higher chance of the Fed hiking again.
And stocks are still sitting near record highs.
That’s the part that bothers me.
You have higher oil.
Higher long-term yields.
More inflation pressure.
Less confidence that the Fed can cut.
Yet the market hasn’t really repriced for that.
Maybe nothing happens. Markets can ignore bad news for a long time.
But if something breaks, September won’t be the reason.
The market was already sitting on a pile of assumptions before the month even started.