To use an overused cliche, we’re sleepwalking right into disaster.
That is, October is turning-out to be nothing like the month that many analysts had expected.
Here we are, halfway through the month, and the US stock market is right back to within spitting distance of new, all-time record highs.
What a farce!
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, you don’t get it man, if the stock market crashes, a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money!”.
And whose fault is that?
If I deny my kids healthy food and nourish them with nothing more than cheeze doodles and Big Red soda, then sure, it would be my fault if they started having heart attacks and complications from diabetes at age 30 while weighing 450 pounds, but there comes a time, much younger than 30, and probably younger than 20, when bad parenting makes-up only half of the equation, for the other half is made up of adults making individual choices on their own.
The Fed is to blame.
The Government is to blame.
We are to blame.
Part of the catalyst for this newfound stock market bliss is the Fed getting back to their money printing schemes, with everybody so quick to joke about how it’s not actually “QE”, but at the same time, nobody giving a crap about what the Fed is doing to savers, what the Fed is doing to the elderly on fixed incomes, or what the Fed is doing to those people who wish to not participate in this mainstream immoral, unethical and financialized bastardization of an economy and markets.
Part of the catalyst for this newfound stock market bliss is the Trade War progress, with its seemingly small battles that are so full of win for Team Trump, but it’s hard to say that the progress is full of win for America, especially when we see things like the Trump Administration kicking the communist Chinese out of controlling the second busiest shipping container port in the United States, all the while allowing what is essentially an Australian real estate investment firm to control the port instead of, oh, say, an actual American shipping and logistics company.
But don’t take ‘Ol Half Dollar’s word for it, read about the company and its subsidiaries for yourself:
Sure, those evil Chinese aren’t at the helm of the second busiest port in America, but how exactly are real estate developers in a nation that swears its allegiance to the queen of England any better, and how does this deal work to the benefit of “America First”?
They aren’t, and it doesn’t.
Those are just two examples of how we’re sleepwalking into disaster, the Fed’s official announcement of its latest money printing scheme, and President Trump’s trade war progress, and I do in fact have a point here: The stock market sees bullish news, yet fails to realize the intent is to destroy the American empire, ruin the American economy, and kill the US dollar.
Perhaps the more important question is, why have the mainstream analysts been proven so wrong?
Here’s the reason: Because they’re not on the inside.
That’s why the mainstream analysts have been proven so wrong.
I think the stock market will be coming down, by design, but not many people are in on the plan, and I’m sure there are some people who even think they’re in on the plan when they’re not, so what it really comes down to is a question of when are the Deep State Globalists going to pull the plug on the US stock market?
If I’m right, and if it’s timed to have maximum effect with the 2020 election in mind, then it’s coming down very, very soon.
Silver has been holding up as evidenced by the gold-to-silver ratio plateauing:
Generally speaking, when gold falls, silver falls even more on a percentage basis, yet silver has not done that, which is somewhat concerning for the silver bulls.
Which means that if silver does play “catch-down” to gold, we could hit my previous downside target of $16.25:
We’ve been in a correction since the first week of September, and unless you are trading on insider information, as in, you are literally on the inside, then trying to nail the timing and the price, together, especially in silver, is something that will blow up any real trader’s trading account sooner or later.
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, are you sayin’ a person’s not a real trader unless they’ve blown-up an account?”.
Assuming we’re talking about a great trader?
There are no great traders who have never blown-up an account.
Gold finished last week with a couple of down days, so it will be crucial to see how support at $1500 holds:
As I said in my Friday Wrap, I’m having to re-assess my short-term and mid-term outlooks on the metals, and especially gold, as China begins co-regulating at least some “financially settled” gold futures products on the COMEX today.
Palladium could be building a base at $1650:
Technically speaking, it would be nice to see palladium pull-back to the whole number support of $1600 and cleanly bounce off it.
If the technicals matter, the bulls do not want to interpret platinum’s daily chart as a bear flag:
If I’m right that platinum will be receiving gold & silver treatment from the cartel for the foreseeable future, it makes total sense the cartel would want to paint a bear flag.
Copper has already come down to test the support of its 50-day:
A 50-day moving average which is now clearly pointing north!
Crude oil is basically range-bound between $52.50 and $57.50:
I’m sure one of the parameters for letting the crude oil market go ballistic is when full-size truck sales and full-size SUV sales reach a certain percentage decline, meaning that everybody who wanted a gas guzzler, has a gas guzzler, and then real pain at the pump can begin to have an effect on the maximum number of Americans.
Of course, just like new car warranties are based on mileage or based on time, I’m sure another parameter for letting the crude oil market go ballistic is when the Deep State Globalists think the pain of higher gas prices will be front-and-center on the Deplorables’ minds come election time.
Here’s a look at the sleep walker:
Wow, that’s a tough one to call right now, because there’s no denying the series of higher-lows, even if we do not have absolute higher-highs, but again, that’s if the technicals matter.
With NotQE (or is it “NonQE”?), and with trade war progress, one would think the VIX would get walked back-down:
A falling VIX also has a lot to do about why I say the stock market is sleepwalking into a disaster.
The dollar looks like it could have topped:
The real question is how do the Deep State Globalists try to bring it down, in increments, or with some shock-n-awe.
While the cartel sure would have more fun with some good old-fashioned shock-n-awe, that could also cause more of an actual drive into real gold & silver, so the likely scenario is incremental weakness, but then, does the cartel have good of control?
Finally, yield on the 10-Year Note looks rather sickly:
If you’re controlling the world’s reserve currency, you really do not want the yield on the benchmark US Treasury looking this volatile, and, in my opinion, this could be some signs that we’re close to the bond market blowing-up.
Yield on the 10-Year Note is getting very exciting to watch again.
The bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Monday in mid-October?
Today the Chinese get to waltz in to the COMEX and work with the Cartel.
While we let that digest and settle, let’s think about the stock market.
Two developments just happened that seem “good for stocks”.
There has been progress in President Trump’s trade war.
The Fed’s pumping to keep the stock bubble inflated.
So we have a stock market that’s sleepwalking.
Because it is dreaming of the good times.
If they’re going to destroy America?
The market will end in disaster.
And I think that is the plan.
As we sleepwalk into it.
Record highs first?
Does it matter?
– Half Dollar