by EightFolding
“the S&P 500’s forward P/E has accurately predicted the bottom of every other notable decline since the mid-1990s. […]
As of Aug. 31, the S&P 500’s forward-year P/E stood at 16.8. Based on the noted range of 13 to 14, this would imply further downside to the S&P 500 of 16.7% to 22.6%. In other words, as long as the earnings component of the benchmark index doesn’t drastically change, this indicator would imply a bear-market bottom between 3,061 and 3,296.”
But, it could be even worse…
“Since 1995, there have only been three instances where margin debt increased by 60% or more on a trailing-12-month basis. It occurred immediately prior to the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000, just months prior to the financial crisis taking shape in 2007, and once more in 2021.
[…] the bottom range for the index, based on what margin debt history tells us, is 2,409. “
www.nasdaq.com/articles/where-will-the-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-a-very-clear-clue