via spglobal:

Challenging demand conditions and inflation concerns weigh on US private sector in October.

Key findings:

• Flash US PMI Composite Output Index (1) at 47.3 (September: 49.5). 2-month low.
• Flash US Services Business Activity Index(2) at 46.6 (September: 49.3). 2-month low.
• Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 50.7 (September: 50.6). 5-month high.
• Flash US Manufacturing PMI (3) at 49.9 (September: 52.0). 28-month low.

The fall in business activity was solid and stronger than that seen in September, as service providers signalled a quicker decline. Manufacturers, on the other hand, saw output rise for the second month running, albeit only marginally.

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The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 47.3 in October, down from 49.5 in September. With the exception of the initial pandemic period, the rate of decrease was the second-fastest since 2009.

New Orders

Returned to contraction territory in October. The decrease in new business was only marginal, but was broad based as manufacturers and service providers alike recorded weaker client demand. Goods producers drove the decline, with companies highlighting the impact of inflation and stockbuilding earlier in the year on customer demand, as clients utilized current holdings of inputs and semi-finished items. A reduction in foreign customer demand was also indicated as a strong dollar and challenging economic conditions in key export markets reportedly weighed on new export orders. New business from abroad fell sharply and at the quickest pace since May 2020.

Price

Input cost inflation picked up at the start of the fourth quarter, following a four-month period of softer price rises. The increase in cost burdens remained historically elevated, despite being the second-slowest since January 2021. Interest rates, material shortages and greater wage bills were linked to the uptick.

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Optimism

Firms’ optimism about the outlook meanwhile deteriorated markedly in October. The resulting degree of confidence was among the lowest in the survey history and the weakest for just over two years.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is expecting a recession to hit in 2023, and expects rates to fall to 5.4% by the end of next year. “We’re beginning to see some significant signs of softening in the labor market,” “I do expect the next couple of months are gonna be a pretty abrupt transition.”

How are Other countries doing?

Germany leads steepening eurozone downturn in October

Flash UK PMI data signal increasing economic stress as downturn intensifies

Flash PMIs show renewed contraction of the Australian economy in October while Japan’s service sector powers growth

EURO Zone October PMI Adds Evidence Heading Toward Recession

h/t Dismal-Jellyfish