Spending, Inflation, Income Expectations: Consumers Expect No Improvement

via Mish 

A Fed study of consumer expectations projects a rise in spending but no overall economic improvement a year from now.

I produced the headline chart in Excel from a data download of the Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Spending Projections

  • 75% Percentile: 8.13%
  • Median: 3.08%
  • 25% Percentile: 0.79%

The following charts are clipped straight from the report.

Inflation Expectations

Even looking three years ahead, consumers do not see a spike in inflation.

The short- and medium-term inflation expectations remain at 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent.

Earnings Expectations

Median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations declined slightly, from 2.7% in February to 2.6% in March. The decline was driven by respondents with annual income below $50,000.

Household Income Expecations

Median expected household income growth decreased 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% in March. The decrease was most pronounced among younger (less than 40 years old) and lower income (annual income below $50,000) respondents.

No Better Off

Median Income and spending expectations match median inflation expectations.

In short, consumers do not expect to be any better of next year than they are today.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

871 views

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.