I produced the headline chart in Excel from a data download of the Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- 75% Percentile: 8.13%
- Median: 3.08%
- 25% Percentile: 0.79%
The bottom wage earners barely expect to spend more a year from now. The top percentile fluctuates more, likely with sentiment towards the stock market.
The following charts are clipped straight from the report.
Even looking three years ahead, consumers do not see a spike in inflation.
The short- and medium-term inflation expectations remain at 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent.
Median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations declined slightly, from 2.7% in February to 2.6% in March. The decline was driven by respondents with annual income below $50,000.
Household Income Expecations
Household Income Expectations by Age
Median expected household income growth decreased 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% in March. The decrease was most pronounced among younger (less than 40 years old) and lower income (annual income below $50,000) respondents.
No Better Off
Median Income and spending expectations match median inflation expectations.
In short, consumers do not expect to be any better of next year than they are today.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock