A Quick Note: This is meant to be a purely charting and analytical approach to evaluating market movements. Although I have been very successful in the past predicting movements traders should always make an effort to adjust their positions based on changing political and media landscapes. This approach isn’t meant to be any more accurate than a meteorologist predicting the weather. Take positions at your own risk and always do your own due diligence. I release these for thoughtful criticism from traders who use different approaches for analysis.
Tl;dr: Momentum indicators on longer intervals have almost completely neutralized while leading indicators show weak signals for a potential bearish move. Once again nothing here makes sense other than theta plays. CCS 303/305 5/27. IF YOU’RE LOOKING FOR A PLAY I AM HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN, THIS ONE IS NOT IT.
Intervals: 1W, 1D, 1H
Indicators: MACD, KDJ, MA(200 & 50), NetVolume, DPI, Short Interest
1W: MACD Neutral, Net Volume (440M) Bullish, KDJ Overbought Slight Bearish Convergence
1D: MACD Neutral/Bullish, Net Volume (64M) Bullish, KDJ Overbought Slight Bearish Convergence
1H: MACD Convergent Inconclusive, Net Volume (-65k) Bearish, KDJ Overbought Convergent Bearish
Position: Short 303c 5/27 Long 305c 5/27
Targets: Take profit at 50%+ gain due to theta decay or market movement. Liquidate the position if the market moves greater that the ATR over the course of 2 days (303+ as of today)
News: “Moderna’s chief financial officer and chief medical officer executed options and sold nearly $30 million of shares combined on Monday and Tuesday, SEC filings reviewed by CNN Business show.”
“China’s securities watchdog on Sunday condemned a U.S. law that could block Chinese firms from U.S. securities exchanges, saying it politicised regulation and would damage both countries.
The U.S. Senate passed legislation on Wednesday that could prevent some Chinese companies from listing their shares on U.S. exchanges unless they follow standards for U.S. audits and regulations.” (finance.yahoo.com/news/china-says-u-law-audits-110804305.html)
Analysis: Momentum is completely neutral on 1W and 1D intervals. DPI and Short interest indicate declining long positions in the market suggesting a possible move down in the near future. Although the market has already moved passed a significant area of resistance and could potentially accumulate a move up to 313 fib levels. Shorter intervals suggest bearish movement early week. The only play that makes sense here once again is one in which time is on your side.
Alternative Plays: JETS, HAL
YouTube Walkthrough on TA:
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.